El Niño forecasts extended to 18 months with physics-based model

Researchers from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa have developed a physics-based model that can extend El Niño forecasts to 18 months ahead, significantly improving upon traditional climate model forecasting. This innovative approach, known as the extended nonlinear recharge oscillator (XRO) model, incorporates the fundamental physics of El Niño and its interactions with other climate patterns globally. The model's transparency contrasts with the "black box" nature of AI models, offering a clearer view of the mechanisms behind ENSO predictability. By addressing shortcomings in current climate models and considering interactions with other climate patterns, the XRO model enhances the predictability of ENSO events, crucial for preparing and adapting to climate-related hazards. The research, published in Nature, not only advances ENSO predictions but also improves forecasts for other climate variabilities in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. These findings pave the way for refining global climate models and enhancing our ability to predict and mitigate the effects of climate variability and change on a global scale.