Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden
Prediction markets indicate replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee might enhance electoral prospects by 10-15%. Despite technical objections and lack of clear advantage in polls, markets lean towards this change for potential victory.
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Prediction markets are suggesting that replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee could potentially improve the party's electoral chances. The discussion around replacing Biden has been marked by his refusal to step aside gracefully and the lack of a clear contingency plan from party elites. Various candidates have been considered, with the prediction markets indicating that replacing Biden with Newsom or a generic Democrat could increase the Democrats' odds of winning by 10-15 percentage points. However, there are technical objections to these claims, mainly centered around potential biases in the prediction markets. While polls show no clear advantage for alternate candidates over Biden among voters, the prediction markets still lean towards the idea that replacing Biden could enhance the Democrats' chances of victory. The decision to replace Biden is complex, with factors like public perception, candidate likability, and potential risks associated with introducing a new candidate at the last moment all playing a role in the analysis. Despite some uncertainties and objections, the prediction markets currently suggest that replacing Biden could potentially boost the Democrats' likelihood of winning the election.
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2 commentsNot only they are obviously highly speculative but also prone to easy manipulation by insiders (likely in this case both Biden and Trump associate/aide insiders) which are the only people who make money.
I remember when PredictIt shutdown and yet we have polymarket (gross crypto prediction market) and others encouraging people to gamble while insiders are allowed to rig the market.
So I’m curious why prediction markets should platforms should exist at all.
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