Are We Already in Recession?
The economy might be in a hidden recession despite official indicators showing otherwise. Issues like underestimated inflation and stagnant manufacturing orders suggest a potential long-term downturn, urging alternative indicators for accurate assessment.
Read original article
The article discusses the possibility of the economy being in a recession, potentially for years, despite official economic indicators suggesting otherwise. The author highlights issues with official numbers, such as underestimating inflation and not accurately reflecting real economic growth. For instance, while official inflation rates show around 21%, some indicators like fast food prices have increased by 35-50%, suggesting a potential GDP decrease since pre-Covid times. The article also mentions historical examples where inflationary depressions were hard to detect initially due to asset price increases masking consumer price hikes. Data points like stagnant manufacturing orders, negative consumer spending, and record credit card debt are cited as signs of a hidden recession. The author warns that if the real economic numbers are worse than reported, the country could be heading towards a severe economic downturn akin to a Depression. The piece concludes by urging readers to consider alternative indicators beyond official statistics to gauge the true state of the economy.
Related
America: A healthy or healthcare economy? The sickness at the heart of US GDP
The US economy heavily depends on healthcare, driving job growth and spending. Despite high healthcare expenditure, health outcomes lag behind. Inefficiencies like high costs and lack of universal coverage challenge resource allocation for better health.
Hack Your Way to Scientific Glory
FiveThirtyEight offers a guide for social scientists analyzing political parties' impact on the U.S. economy since 1948. Real data, statistical significance, key factors, influential positions, and monthly plotting are recommended. Scholars and data sources are referenced.
Small Businesses in Crisis as Rising Numbers Unable to Pay Rent
A study by Alignable shows 43% of U.S. small business renters faced rent payment struggles in April, the highest rate since March 2021. Texas led with a 52% delinquency rate. Various sectors, including restaurants, felt the impact, highlighting economic challenges.
Inflation's Wild Ride
Inflation fluctuated significantly since the pandemic, starting with low rates in 2019, a surge in 2021 due to Biden's stimulus, peaking at 9.1% in 2022, and showing signs of cooling in mid-2023. Policymakers are monitoring for further changes.
The Coming Labor Shortage Is Not Good News
The tight labor market post-COVID-19 recovery poses challenges despite economic gains. Economist Adam Ozimek stresses nuanced approaches to worker shortages, wages, and long-term economic health, emphasizing lessons from past recessions.
3 commentsyeah it's pretty bad
Related
America: A healthy or healthcare economy? The sickness at the heart of US GDP
The US economy heavily depends on healthcare, driving job growth and spending. Despite high healthcare expenditure, health outcomes lag behind. Inefficiencies like high costs and lack of universal coverage challenge resource allocation for better health.
Hack Your Way to Scientific Glory
FiveThirtyEight offers a guide for social scientists analyzing political parties' impact on the U.S. economy since 1948. Real data, statistical significance, key factors, influential positions, and monthly plotting are recommended. Scholars and data sources are referenced.
Small Businesses in Crisis as Rising Numbers Unable to Pay Rent
A study by Alignable shows 43% of U.S. small business renters faced rent payment struggles in April, the highest rate since March 2021. Texas led with a 52% delinquency rate. Various sectors, including restaurants, felt the impact, highlighting economic challenges.
Inflation's Wild Ride
Inflation fluctuated significantly since the pandemic, starting with low rates in 2019, a surge in 2021 due to Biden's stimulus, peaking at 9.1% in 2022, and showing signs of cooling in mid-2023. Policymakers are monitoring for further changes.
The Coming Labor Shortage Is Not Good News
The tight labor market post-COVID-19 recovery poses challenges despite economic gains. Economist Adam Ozimek stresses nuanced approaches to worker shortages, wages, and long-term economic health, emphasizing lessons from past recessions.