The VR Winter Continues

I think one of the big problems with VR (and also AR) is that the large companies lack focus and have been trying to make generic do-everything devices to cover many applications. It may make sense from a business point of view since it would ensure the largest user base. However for such a new technology that has a wide variety of potential applications, this means that no one application is given the resources and attention it really needs. Hardware upgrades have negligible impact, software and ux design is not focused on a specific need, and many fundamental issues are left unsolved.

VR companies are trying to make the iPhone of VR without considering that the iPhones success was built on decades of computing fundamentals. Before its possible to make good hardware and XR experiences, we'll need basic research in optics, display panels, tracking, multiview eye tracked foveated rendering, gaze correction, vari-focal, lossless wireless... the list can go on and on. Very few want to invest in solving these problems and simply wants to build a huge ecosystem with a large user base. Even Facebook/Meta, who have invested the most, have failed to tackle any of the major problems even after 10 years of being in the field. Since 2016 when 6-DoF tracked controllers became the norm, there hasn't been any major advancements other than slightly better visuals.

Looking at XR technology that has been successful, its usually because of a very clear focus on a specific application. VR flight and racing simulations with professional headsets like the Varjo appear seem far more developed. With a motion rig, these are good enough for training professionals. VR has solidified its place its this niche market at least. Microsoft's success often gets overlooked, but they have a $20B defense contract to supply IVAS AR headsets to the US military. If more companies focused on solving one of fundamental problems, it should eventually be possible to create a mainstream mass-market device that everyone will want to use.

Reminds me of the 3d TVs that were being forced on consumers. Nobody wanted them because you had to wear a set of goofy glasses.

The problem with VR and AR is that you can't sit around the living room and enjoy the same entertainment. You isolate yourself away from others in the room in a strange way.

Wearing headphones is somewhat like this in that others can't easily talk to you, but at least they can waive their hands to get your attention if needed.

The problem is that video games and social media are already optimized for dopamine. There is little boost to the dopamine hit offered by the immersion of VR. People aren't going to become addicted enough to VR in itself to overpower the inconvenience and simulation sickness of putting a computer on your head.

The fact that consumer VR remains a niche category even in its best use case - gaming - tells you everything you need to know about whether or not it's ready for development in the non-gaming consumer space.

Until VR tech is strong enough that it becomes a must-own product type for the average gamer, any other consumer-focused use case should be considered dead in the water.

I have an Oculus headset, but just getting going is an ordeal, I have to turn on the goggles, load into MetaOS (or whatever the name is), then load up into PCVR-mode, an then load my game (through Steam).

It's like inception, and I am 3 layers deep, and every layer has it own controls.

Is there any technological solution to VR motion sickness? I built up my motion sickness immunity on oculus, could play games well, and then one day got hit with crazy nausea and since then I can’t play, that feeling was so bad, it’s similar to when you eat something and it makes you nausea and you can’t eat it ever again. Is there a technical solution to make sure people don’t need to build nausea immunity? Seems like the biggest UX hurdle to be and without a fix, how can this really take off?

> it’s obvious that the devices will get better, lighter and cheaper, but much less obvious whether that’s enough. How many people will care?

I don't know the answer to that question, but I certainly won't care. I am not in any of the demographic groups that can currently get value from it.

VR/AR is a thing that covers several niche use cases very well, but it's hard to see how it would be useful enough generally that it would become a common consumer item.

I could see it becoming popular amongst gamers, and its utility in specific things like industrial use are pretty clear, but most people aren't gamers, and most people don't need to do industrial sorts of things in their daily lives.

I don't see it taking the role of smartphones in most people's lives even if the gear becomes no more onerous than a pair of glasses for a number of reasons, but if the tech does reach that point, I could see a large minority of people swapping to them.

But who knows? What I'm very confident about is that this won't be a mainstream thing for a nontrivial number of years.

VR is failing because it requires too much activation energy. Games are fundamentally about leisure. VR as it exists requires clearing space and standing and moving. It's also high intensity. High intensity is good under certain circumstances but I think humans are actually wired to prefer lower intensity things.

When VR becomes something that is effortless to use and I can just slip on some glasses and not even feel them on my head is when it will break out.

Apple has some fundamental aspects of VR right such as controlling the UI with eyes and slight hand movements. Also most apps are geared towards sitting down. The problem is their headset is too heavy.

edit: Also I know there are people the above doesn't apply to, I'm basically going off of revealed preference. There is a reason why there are so many people that prefer watching others play games rather than playing themselves for example. There is also a reason mobile games are so popular over desktop.

I'd like to see a company create AR experiences tailored to your home. Ship you high-end headsets and tracking beacons, play the game, then send them back. Disneyland on VHS.

https://thecontextwindow.ai/p/disneyland-on-vhs

This is the second VR winter, of course; perhaps there will be another yet to come.

This is a key idea, and a pattern one sees over and over:

> Something can be amazingly cool and part of the future, but not a big part of the future.

I think that self-driving cars will also prove to be in this category.

Until VR motion sickness is fixed it is a non-starter for a non-negligible part of the consumer public.

The entirety of this VR cycle feels like companies desperately looking for “that next thing” and leaping on VR because it kinda looked like there was traction.

VR needs the killer app outside of gaming. It's currently too cumbersome to be seriously productive in VR compared to using traditional monitors connected to computers. Consumers aren't dumb. When a product adds real value, they'll buy it.

"Look at this awesome thing we made that you don't want!"