Is a Universal Basic Income System Even Possible?
Skepticism surrounds Universal Basic Income (UBI) due to political polarization and funding challenges. While local pilots show promise, national implementation faces high costs and uncertain legislative support.
Read original articleis, he expressed skepticism, citing the current political climate and the challenges of bipartisan support for new entitlement programs. He noted that the existing polarization in Congress makes it difficult to reach consensus on significant spending initiatives, especially those perceived as expanding government welfare.
The discussion around Universal Basic Income (UBI) has gained traction, particularly among tech leaders like Sam Altman, who argue that automation will displace many jobs, necessitating a new financial support system. While numerous local UBI pilot programs have shown promise in alleviating economic anxiety, scaling these initiatives to a national level poses significant challenges, particularly regarding funding. Critics highlight the high costs associated with providing a universal payment, estimating that a $10,000 annual payment for every American could exceed $3 trillion annually.
Proponents argue that the actual net cost could be much lower, suggesting that funding could primarily come from taxing the wealthiest Americans. However, even if implemented, UBI is unlikely to replace traditional employment; rather, it may serve as a supplementary income, helping individuals meet basic needs without fully alleviating the necessity of work. The political feasibility of such a program remains uncertain, with significant hurdles in garnering the necessary legislative support amidst a divided government.
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No, it won’t, and no, they won’t. I’m sure this view helps Sam sleep at night but based on all of human history, the rich and powerful will use AI to suck as much life out of the poor and powerless as possible.
1) It can’t be enough to desirably live on. It must essentially be “survival level” so that there is still an incentive to contribute to society with your work. Unlike unemployment, this means that if you get a job you just make more money rather than trade unemployment for a paycheck.
2) You have to strictly prevent increases due to inflation or inflation will spiral further out of control than it already is, perpetually increasing the UBI to accommodate the increases in costs for everything leading to a death spiral for the currency. Otherwise, it is impossible.
3) You must reduce all other benefit programs by the amount of the UBI to help pay for it.
4) It can only be done in a way that most people will be paying it back with reasonable income levels or it will be a perpetual drain.
I think that if someone had a regular income to pay for their basic needs there is no way they would just sit around drinking beer and smoking weed all day. Most people are driven to better themselves.
I do hate the haters who wrongly think that living on any benefit is living a life of luxury. I challenge all of thenm to try and successfuly live a full and productive life on £70 a week. Impossible.
Even people on benefits contribute to society.
Every penny of the meagre benefits they get and spend on survival still goes towards some business profit margin.
All benefits here on Airstrip One work on a sliding scale so those 18 year olds do not get the same amount as the disabled person because the disabled person gets twice as much to live on as well as other benefits to support them.
In 2023-24, the government is expected to spend £265.5bn on paying pensions and benefits.
just over half of which (£134.8bn) goes on benefits to pensioners.
All pensioners that is, even those living in £2,000,000 properties and recieving huge personal pensions. yes they still get the state pension too. I personally think the state pension should be stripped from those pensioners.
The Standard allowance
You’ll get one standard allowance for your household every month.
If you’re single and under 25--------£311.68
If you’re single and 25 or over------£393.45
If you live with your partner and you’re both under 25-----£489.23 (for you both)
If you live with your partner and either of you are 25 or over-----£617.60 (for you both)
If you are under 25 and live with your parents, money will be deducted from your benefits to pay a share of your parents rent.
People are currently not allowed to work while claiming benefits which inevitably leaves them in the benefit trap from which there is no escape.
This is where UBI would work for all people, everyone would be allowed to work and receive UBI.
A win win for the people and for society as far as I am concerned.
Formally a society is built to serve their people, so it's a duty of a society assuring a minimum living standard as much as possible to anyone, if that's possible is not a matter of money but natural resources, skills to profit from them etc. How to ensure such living standard to anyone and where the bar of "the minimum" is set it's a whole topic and have not much to do with money.
Remember however a thing: most poor tend to remain poor because they do not know how to administer their life BUT they can still live better with a bit of revenue and what go though their "holed hands" fall in someone else pocket, meaning it still makes the economy turning, so there is NO ISSUE in having a UBI for all, unconditionally, also to the richest, with just few spending rules (like you can save money from it, but not more than a certain amount, you can spend it but only domestically) because the money goes from those who receive them to the local activities, spent in food, medicine, play and so on.
The real point is how can an economy have private money, created out of thin air by some who "rent it" to the government as de-facto dictators. And my answer is there is no economy able to survive much in such system, deep crises and wars are natural in such systems.
I don't get it.
Perhaps possible, but coupled with other extreme changes made for "fair" treatmenet.
Probably yes.
In practice, and at the behest of "AI titans" - who have NO at-scale experience with economic policy or political leadership?
Zero chance in hell.
Just look at the consequences of the COVID payments and imagine that on an even larger scale.
In 2023, some 60-ish billion euro has been evaded. No government has ever tried to rectify this gaping chasm as that would be a political suicide.
On top of this, should I pay even more to keep afloat those that do no not want to work? Fuck that. Forget it.
So roughly 4,000,000,000,000 in new spending per year just to start. Obviously none of this would come from existing revenues. Which is incidentally very similar to the 2020 spending; which caused ~6% inflation.
Will that $1000/month be inflation adjusted? If not, in 10 years that will be the equivalent of setting it to $500.
If it is inflation adjusted, then it will be at ~1700/year.
Roughly 5,600,000,000,000is the new price. That's assuming no politicians for 10 years and multiple elections dont say they'll be increasing it.
"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic." by Benjamin Franklin
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Denver gave homeless people $1k/mth. Year later, nearly half had housing
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UBI gains traction over the impacts of AI and encouraging socially valuable work
Universal basic income is seen as a solution to AI impact, encouraging fulfilling work. Pilot schemes show UBI supports art, boosts labor market participation, and improves financial health, despite challenges like tax implications.
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Silicon Valley, led by figures like Sam Altman, explores unconditional cash programs for those in need due to high living costs. Debate arises over effectiveness and implementation challenges despite some positive impacts.
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Universal basic income is seen as a solution to AI's impact on jobs. Pilot programs show UBI enables pursuing meaningful work, improving job choices, financial health, and education. Challenges in implementation persist.
Sam Altman's basic-income study is out. Here's what it found
Sam Altman's basic-income study by OpenAI provided $1,000/month to low-income participants for 3 years. Funds were used for essentials, reducing initial stress but not addressing complex challenges. Recipients showed increased agency but no direct health improvements. Employment rates declined over time.