July 25th, 2024

Is a Universal Basic Income System Even Possible?

Skepticism surrounds Universal Basic Income (UBI) due to political polarization and funding challenges. While local pilots show promise, national implementation faces high costs and uncertain legislative support.

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Is a Universal Basic Income System Even Possible?

is, he expressed skepticism, citing the current political climate and the challenges of bipartisan support for new entitlement programs. He noted that the existing polarization in Congress makes it difficult to reach consensus on significant spending initiatives, especially those perceived as expanding government welfare.

The discussion around Universal Basic Income (UBI) has gained traction, particularly among tech leaders like Sam Altman, who argue that automation will displace many jobs, necessitating a new financial support system. While numerous local UBI pilot programs have shown promise in alleviating economic anxiety, scaling these initiatives to a national level poses significant challenges, particularly regarding funding. Critics highlight the high costs associated with providing a universal payment, estimating that a $10,000 annual payment for every American could exceed $3 trillion annually.

Proponents argue that the actual net cost could be much lower, suggesting that funding could primarily come from taxing the wealthiest Americans. However, even if implemented, UBI is unlikely to replace traditional employment; rather, it may serve as a supplementary income, helping individuals meet basic needs without fully alleviating the necessity of work. The political feasibility of such a program remains uncertain, with significant hurdles in garnering the necessary legislative support amidst a divided government.

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Link Icon 16 comments
By @bitnasty - 3 months
> As AI produces most of the world’s basic goods and services, people will be freed up to spend more time with people they care about, care for people, appreciate art and nature, or work toward social good

No, it won’t, and no, they won’t. I’m sure this view helps Sam sleep at night but based on all of human history, the rich and powerful will use AI to suck as much life out of the poor and powerless as possible.

By @brightball - 3 months
Yes, with caveats.

1) It can’t be enough to desirably live on. It must essentially be “survival level” so that there is still an incentive to contribute to society with your work. Unlike unemployment, this means that if you get a job you just make more money rather than trade unemployment for a paycheck.

2) You have to strictly prevent increases due to inflation or inflation will spiral further out of control than it already is, perpetually increasing the UBI to accommodate the increases in costs for everything leading to a death spiral for the currency. Otherwise, it is impossible.

3) You must reduce all other benefit programs by the amount of the UBI to help pay for it.

4) It can only be done in a way that most people will be paying it back with reasonable income levels or it will be a perpetual drain.

By @reify - 3 months
I personally have great faith in people.

I think that if someone had a regular income to pay for their basic needs there is no way they would just sit around drinking beer and smoking weed all day. Most people are driven to better themselves.

I do hate the haters who wrongly think that living on any benefit is living a life of luxury. I challenge all of thenm to try and successfuly live a full and productive life on £70 a week. Impossible.

Even people on benefits contribute to society.

Every penny of the meagre benefits they get and spend on survival still goes towards some business profit margin.

All benefits here on Airstrip One work on a sliding scale so those 18 year olds do not get the same amount as the disabled person because the disabled person gets twice as much to live on as well as other benefits to support them.

In 2023-24, the government is expected to spend £265.5bn on paying pensions and benefits.

just over half of which (£134.8bn) goes on benefits to pensioners.

All pensioners that is, even those living in £2,000,000 properties and recieving huge personal pensions. yes they still get the state pension too. I personally think the state pension should be stripped from those pensioners.

The Standard allowance

You’ll get one standard allowance for your household every month.

If you’re single and under 25--------£311.68

If you’re single and 25 or over------£393.45

If you live with your partner and you’re both under 25-----£489.23 (for you both)

If you live with your partner and either of you are 25 or over-----£617.60 (for you both)

If you are under 25 and live with your parents, money will be deducted from your benefits to pay a share of your parents rent.

People are currently not allowed to work while claiming benefits which inevitably leaves them in the benefit trap from which there is no escape.

This is where UBI would work for all people, everyone would be allowed to work and receive UBI.

A win win for the people and for society as far as I am concerned.

By @kkfx - 3 months
Ladies and Gentleman money are VIRTUAL, so yes, a UBI system is definitively possible, the point is how much REAL resources we have to share amount the people for their needs and desires no matter if with a UBI or not.

Formally a society is built to serve their people, so it's a duty of a society assuring a minimum living standard as much as possible to anyone, if that's possible is not a matter of money but natural resources, skills to profit from them etc. How to ensure such living standard to anyone and where the bar of "the minimum" is set it's a whole topic and have not much to do with money.

Remember however a thing: most poor tend to remain poor because they do not know how to administer their life BUT they can still live better with a bit of revenue and what go though their "holed hands" fall in someone else pocket, meaning it still makes the economy turning, so there is NO ISSUE in having a UBI for all, unconditionally, also to the richest, with just few spending rules (like you can save money from it, but not more than a certain amount, you can spend it but only domestically) because the money goes from those who receive them to the local activities, spent in food, medicine, play and so on.

The real point is how can an economy have private money, created out of thin air by some who "rent it" to the government as de-facto dictators. And my answer is there is no economy able to survive much in such system, deep crises and wars are natural in such systems.

By @dsm4ck - 3 months
I was glad to see that social security was mentioned- the universal basic income we already have for the elderly.
By @michaelt - 3 months
> according to Widerquist, the $2-3 trillion projections are just bad math. These simplistic calculations involve multiplying the number of people in America (roughly 330 million) by the average UBI output (approximately $10-12k). While they accurately assess the amount of money that would be involved in such a system, they aren’t accounting for the fact that most of that money will be exchanged via the tax system (many people will pay into it, but they will also get that money back, effectively nullifying the need to generate “new” revenue), meaning that the total amount of new revenue that the government actually needs to generate is only about $539 billion, or roughly 3 percent of GDP.

I don't get it.

By @twoknights - 3 months
Extremely tough to just change everyone's income. How about the prices of commodities in each country in the world?

Perhaps possible, but coupled with other extreme changes made for "fair" treatmenet.

By @antiquark - 3 months
UBI would be such a big tax burden, that politicians would start promising to abolish it. Hence, I don't think it could last in a democracy.
By @bell-cot - 3 months
In theory?

Probably yes.

In practice, and at the behest of "AI titans" - who have NO at-scale experience with economic policy or political leadership?

Zero chance in hell.

By @0xDEADFED5 - 3 months
Seems possible, but there are still many sizable voting blocs that will endure a lot of hardship before they decide to take the dole.
By @b3ing - 3 months
It won’t be because landlords will raise the rent accordingly. Besides the hate for the poor is at a all time high
By @GardenLetter27 - 3 months
It will lead to hyper-inflation unless we're somehow already in post-scarcity abundance (and one look at the housing market shows that isn't true!).

Just look at the consequences of the COVID payments and imagine that on an even larger scale.

By @drivingmenuts - 3 months
In the US, not as long as there are Conservatives. A pillar of the Republican ideology (and perhaps Libertarian, even) is that money is for people who work and if you don't work, die - you're useless to them.
By @thefz - 3 months
In my country, I can't not-pay taxes. They are deducted by my employer out of my pay. There is a large gap between employees in this situation and freelancers who get paid in cash and declare nothing. So basically, those who already pay, are paying for everybody that does not want to.

In 2023, some 60-ish billion euro has been evaded. No government has ever tried to rectify this gaping chasm as that would be a political suicide.

On top of this, should I pay even more to keep afloat those that do no not want to work? Fuck that. Forget it.

By @incomingpain - 3 months
330 million X $1000/month?

So roughly 4,000,000,000,000 in new spending per year just to start. Obviously none of this would come from existing revenues. Which is incidentally very similar to the 2020 spending; which caused ~6% inflation.

Will that $1000/month be inflation adjusted? If not, in 10 years that will be the equivalent of setting it to $500.

If it is inflation adjusted, then it will be at ~1700/year.

Roughly 5,600,000,000,000is the new price. That's assuming no politicians for 10 years and multiple elections dont say they'll be increasing it.

"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic." by Benjamin Franklin