Substantial Risk of Atlantic Circulation Tipping Under Moderate Climate Change
A study reveals a significant risk of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation tipping due to climate change, with over 50% likelihood by 2050 if temperatures rise above 2.2°C.
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The study titled "Substantial Risk of 21st Century AMOC Tipping even under Moderate Climate Change" examines the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial element of the climate system that may reach a tipping point due to global warming. Researchers analyzed climate model simulations, observations, and reanalysis products to determine the critical global warming threshold for AMOC collapse. They identified a threshold of a +3°C increase in global mean surface temperature compared to pre-industrial levels, with a lower bound of +2.2°C. These temperature anomalies are projected to occur after 2050. The findings suggest that there is more than a 50% likelihood of AMOC tipping within the 21st century under moderate climate change scenarios, and over 90% likelihood under high emissions scenarios. Although the cooling effects from AMOC collapse may be countered by regional warming in Northwestern Europe, the overall impacts on society are expected to be severe. The research highlights the urgent need for climate action to mitigate these risks associated with AMOC instability.
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