Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat from Which the US and Allies Could Not Retreat
The paper warns that potential annexation of Taiwan by China could destabilize the global economy, impact U.S. interests, and undermine military credibility, urging immediate action to deter aggression and protect Taiwan.
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The paper discusses the potential annexation of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China (PRC) and its severe implications for the United States and its allies. It warns that such an event could lead to unprecedented economic shocks, destabilizing the global economy and significantly impacting American interests. The authors emphasize Taiwan's critical role in the semiconductor industry, suggesting that a coercive unification with China would disrupt global supply chains, potentially causing economic losses comparable to those experienced during World War II. The annexation could also undermine U.S. military credibility in the region, leading to a shift in power dynamics and increased tensions among global superpowers.
The authors argue that Xi Jinping's motivations for annexation are rooted in asserting political control and fulfilling the Chinese Communist Party's territorial ambitions. They highlight the risk of a cascade of nuclear proliferation if U.S. allies lose confidence in American security guarantees, which could lead to a more unstable international environment. The paper calls for urgent action from U.S. policymakers to deter PRC aggression and reinforce defense strategies to protect Taiwan, likening the situation to Cold War dynamics. The authors conclude that the current decade is critical for safeguarding Taiwan and maintaining the post-war international order, urging immediate and sustained efforts to prevent a crisis.
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2 commentsThe risk of loss of TSMC is being worked on far too slowly. Nothing the west can do will stop China seeking better VLSI production capabilities and blocking access to ASML is only encouraging them to scale up.
The loss of "face" and effective geopolitical influence would be a persisting problem. Regional alliances have some role here, but honestly? Nobody wants a shooting war.
The economic consequences I think might be capable of being offset, and in many ways are shared by China. It's a story of two sides. War is only partially ameliorative to a moribund domestic economy and continuing isolation of China risks much of the reward to their citizens for ongoing passivity.
Risk:consequence stories always have the third leg of the triad - likelihood. You plan for even unlikely eventualities because that's risk management.
I personally think an invasive takeover of Taiwan is highly unlikely in the short to medium term because of the rivers of blood from a defended invasion attempt: China has low experience of this, and I tend to think has a low tolerance for failure and a defended beachhead in modern warfare is going to play out differently to day, bloody Omaha was the exception and this time would be the norm, not to mention losses at sea.
Which leaves the other, non invasion led mechanistic approaches to reunion. I'm unsure how likely they are.
I still don't really understand how they justify this.
Of course if Britain or Spain would suddenly decide they wanted to reclaim any territory or colony they've every possessed in history (note, this includes the US for Britain and most of latin America for Spain) nobody would stand by them. Why do we act like this is acceptable or justifiable when it comes to China? I was kinda hoping that we'd be past this as Humanity. And owned territory does not equate power anyway. The US has been very powerful without owning half the world.
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