China is slowly joining the economic war against Russia?
China's ball bearing exports to Russia dropped from $5-7 million monthly in 2023 to $2-3 million in 2024, reflecting reduced economic ties amid U.S. sanctions and export controls.
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China's exports of ball bearings to Russia have significantly decreased from a monthly rate of $5-7 million in 2023 to $2-3 million in 2024, reflecting a shift in China's economic engagement with Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This decline follows a broader economic response to Russia's invasion, which initially involved a coalition of liberal democracies reducing their economic ties with Russia. The second stage of this economic war has seen efforts to influence non-coalition countries, including China, to limit their trade with Russia, particularly through U.S. secondary sanctions introduced in December 2023. These sanctions threaten foreign banks facilitating transactions with Russia's military-industrial complex, leading to a reduction in trade from countries like China.
Additionally, U.S. export controls have tightened, requiring licenses for the export of dual-use items, which include critical components for military applications. Data indicates that China's exports of high-priority goods, such as microelectronic circuits, have also fallen below pre-invasion levels. While there are concerns that China may reroute exports through third-party nations, recent data suggests that such diversions have not compensated for the decline in direct exports to Russia. The coalition's measures appear to be effective in reducing China's economic support for Russia, although further pressure and enforcement will be necessary to eliminate remaining trade in high-priority goods. The recent extension of sanctions to Russian banks is expected to further complicate trade relations between China and Russia.
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16 commentsFor example: https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2024/05/24/china-russia-join...
In which they literally agree to cooperate in nearly every economic area.
Neither wants OFAC:
"... Both sides oppose interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries, unilateral sanctions without international law basis or UN Security Council authorization, and 'long-arm jurisdiction' ..."
To my knowledge, these joint statements are not usually officially translated to English (or covered in the Western press).
https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-banks-reject-80-russian-0...
They are not openly hostile to Russia and will not admit to aligning with the West, but they certainly do not want trouble (sanctions) or an open war with Russia. They told Putin they will not pay for the Syberian pipeline, because they don't have to. Given how bad the Russia's economic situation is China can do nothing, squeeze every last penny out of them, and enjoy cheap access to the Russia's mineral resources without having to conquer and run the place.
The real point is that EU interests are with the EAEU, being all Europeans till the Urals, being almost compatible (EAEU is like ancient ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) the base of the modern EU) technically is the most reasonable move for both party:
- they both need an ally, the western need natural resources and space, the easterner modern industry and management;
- they are in territorial continuity, and both can't much invade each others;
- they are both oppressed by their current allied, the EU driven by conflicting USA/UK interests, Russia by the China dominance and economical colonization of the Siberia and the Russian Far East.
That's a socially nearly utopia but technically most sound partnership. China knows that and they need to avoid that as the USA and the UK. If that happen for a reason or another China, USA, UK are simply dead because they can only kill each others in an economical al military war both falling on their own internal weakness. So China need to control Russia, but not allow it to strength much, the USA/UK need to control EU. They have a point in common, but a conflicting one, so it's very unlikely they agree on anything.
Aside China need South America, something USA can't accept at all, but can't really go to war, at least that's the last thing they do want. On the other side UK in primis, but also USA desperately need a global war, UK to avoid a civil war, witch is VERY near due to a completely failed economy and way too much general population poverty, USA and in a far better status but they can't lose nor south America nor the dollar dominance so they need a war a well. The probability of an alliance in such war between USA/UK and China is very unlikely, their ruling class is very similar in thinking terms, but they are definitively conflicting without much choice. They are not like Nazi-Fascist-Japan axe today because resources are scarce for all.
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