August 6th, 2024

The U.S. economy is not crashing

The U.S. economy remains stable despite stock market fluctuations, with stocks up nearly 10% this year. Concerns about a slowdown arise from weak job growth, but indicators show no significant downturn.

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The U.S. economy is not crashing

The U.S. economy is not experiencing a crash, despite recent stock market fluctuations. Noah Smith discusses the recent drop in stock prices, emphasizing that while there was a notable decline, stocks have rebounded and are still performing well overall. He highlights that stocks are up nearly 10% this year and 15.5% over the past year, indicating a strong market performance. The reasons behind the recent stock drop are unclear, but it may be linked to high valuations and global market reactions, particularly following interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Concerns about a slowing U.S. economy have been fueled by disappointing job growth and manufacturing reports, leading to fears of a potential recession. However, Smith argues that the economic indicators do not suggest a significant downturn, and the economy remains relatively stable. He suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to consider cutting interest rates to support economic growth.

- The U.S. economy is not crashing, despite recent stock market volatility.

- Stocks are still up nearly 10% this year and 15.5% over the past year.

- Recent stock declines may be linked to high valuations and global market reactions.

- Concerns about a slowing economy stem from weak job growth and manufacturing data.

- Economic indicators do not suggest a significant downturn, indicating stability.

Link Icon 10 comments
By @sgnelson - 9 months
How about a simple "The stock market is not the economy?"

Too easy?

By @hi-v-rocknroll - 9 months
What happened was an unwinding of Japanese yen interest rate arbitraging. The party of one of the last remaining sources of cheap cash went away, and a bunch of fragile investment theses collapsed in other markets around the globe.

I think MAANG has much more value to lose and are probably headed for more rounds of layoffs. NVDA and SMCI are still way overvalued.

By @uncivilized - 9 months
A piece on the financial markets, which could have included a tweet from any proper financial source, instead it includes one from Austen Allred.
By @chuckadams - 9 months
I’ll believe the economy is crashing when Jim Cramer says it isn’t.
By @triceratops - 9 months
Who said it was crashing?
By @jsyang00 - 9 months
this will be good for tech if it continues... short term pain, sure... but if sell off continues it will pressure fed to loosen rates and turn money spigot back on for startup and investment capital. the recent appreciation in tech stocks has primarily benefited existing shareholders and AI has driven more capex expense expansion that opex
By @ein0p - 9 months
This sounds like “famous last words”.
By @4fterd4rk - 9 months
The shrill response to this minor correction makes me wonder... are people reacting this way because social media has broken our brains and we have to freak out about everything for the likes? Or is this due to roughly half of the population actively wishing for the economy to crash so Trump will have another talking point?
By @kalfdhG - 9 months
This blog post is about the stock market, not the economy. It does not mention inflation, stagflation, rising energy prices, rising unemployment, current wars, likely additional wars, etc.

All by the way the product one of the worst administrations that the U.S. has ever had. Now that the layoffs also concern software developers, some people here might understand.

By @486sx33 - 9 months
The huge amount of stimulus money is slowly unwinding, also people panic. Let’s say I’m invested with $50,000 in Walmart and I’m up 8.9% . In ordinary times I’d stay invested to see maybe 15%-20% When I see in the media the market is dropping and my 8.9 is already down to 7.9 I’m selling to keep what I can.

This is how the panic happens

But now I’m sitting on this cash, and like Matthew McConaughey says in wolf of Wall Street , they’re fucking addicted , so the next day I put some or all back into a new idea a new brainwave.. out of tech and into food production. Out of Walmart and into real estate.. who knows

But slowly the stimulus will unwind in equities, bonds, real estate …