August 9th, 2024

Japan Issues First Ever Mega Earthquake Warning

Japan issued a "megaquake" warning after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake near Miyazaki Prefecture, causing minor injuries and damage, while residents are advised to remain vigilant for potential evacuations.

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Japan Issues First Ever Mega Earthquake Warning

Japan has issued its first warning regarding the potential for a "megaquake" following a 7.1-magnitude earthquake that struck off the southern coast near Miyazaki Prefecture. The earthquake occurred at 4:42 p.m. local time at a depth of approximately 18 miles, prompting a tsunami advisory, although no significant damage or injuries were reported initially. Three individuals sustained injuries, and while there were minor reports of damage, including landslides and broken windows, the overall impact was relatively light. The Japan Meteorological Agency held an emergency meeting to assess the quake's implications for the nearby Nankai Trough, known for causing severe earthquakes in the past. Officials have urged residents to remain vigilant and prepared for potential evacuations. Tsunami waves of up to 1.6 feet were recorded, but the advisory indicated that waves would not exceed 1 meter. All nuclear reactors in the affected regions were reported to be safe. Japan, situated on the Pacific "Ring of Fire," is highly susceptible to seismic activity, with a history of devastating earthquakes.

- Japan issued a "megaquake" warning after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake.

- The quake occurred off Miyazaki Prefecture, prompting a tsunami advisory.

- Minor injuries and damage were reported, with no significant impact on infrastructure.

- Residents are advised to stay vigilant and prepared for possible evacuations.

- All nuclear reactors in the region remain safe following the earthquake.

Link Icon 8 comments
By @maxglute - 5 months
From wiki of potential 100-150 year Nankai megathrust earthquakes event (JP predictions 70%-80% chance within next 30 years)

>The Japanese government estimates that a major earthquake on the Nankai Trough would cause 169.5 trillion yen in direct damage and 50.8 trillion yen in economic losses for the following year. A study by the Japan Society of Civil Engineers in 2018 estimated that the long-term damage from the earthquake could result in 1,240 trillion yen in economic losses over a 20-year period.[11] It is predicted that the economic damage is likely to be 10 times higher than for the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami.[12] A death toll as high as 230,000 has been suggested for such an event.[13]

Early warning / evacuation can reduce casualty by 80%+. 1240T yen = 8.5T USD. 1.5T direct+next year loss = 40% of GDP, with another 160% over next 19 years. Stupendous numbers.

By @ano-ther - 5 months
Scary. It’s an alert though, not a warning yet

>Information from the agency on Nankai Trough megaquakes is delivered at two levels — an alert and a higher warning. The weather agency issued the lower level alert on Thursday, urging people to be prepared for cases requiring evacuation. No evacuations are required for the alert level.

> A warning means people would need to be on higher alert, and officials would urge those who wouldn’t be able to evacuate quickly to do so before any large quake occurs.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/08/japan/nankai-ea...

By @endominus - 5 months
For reference; the earthquake that caused the massive tsunami and Fukushima nuclear reactor disaster 13 years ago was magnitude 9.0. This earthquake was 7.1, roughly 100 times less energetic, though the article notes that seismologists in Japan are warning that stronger earthquakes than this one are more likely than usual in the near future.
By @eigenform - 5 months
Kind of unsettling because there isn't obvious coupling between Hyuga-nada quakes and the Nankai megathrust in the historical record. See the leftmost column:

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/svd/eqev/data/nteq/fig/kako.png

By @hi-v-rocknroll - 5 months
I'm wondering which is worse: alarm fatigue and the next deadly event without a sufficient evacuation, or this event happening without an alarm. People die just from evacuating. Suppose there are 1 death/1e8 km traveled from car crashes, the average evacuation distance were 150 km, and 200k people relocated. The expectation is 0.3 people would die from the evacuation in car crashes. It's possible evacuations are more dangerous and chaotic, and more stressful to the elderly who are more likely to die for this reason rather than in an automotive collision.
By @ChrisArchitect - 5 months
By @jokoon - 5 months
I wonder if climate change can lead to more earthquakes

I would say no, but it would imagine geologists would not say it's impossible?

By @jrmcauliffe - 5 months
I didn't realise we had 18 mile depths.