Launch HN: Sorcerer (YC S24) – Weather balloons that collect more data
Sorcerer, a startup, is developing innovative weather balloons that operate for over six months, enhancing atmospheric data collection in under-monitored regions, potentially revolutionizing forecasting accuracy at lower costs than satellites.
Sorcerer, a startup founded by Max, Alex, and Austin, is developing innovative weather balloons capable of operating for over six months. These balloons collect significantly more atmospheric data at a lower cost compared to traditional methods, addressing a critical gap in weather data collection, especially in under-monitored regions like Latin America, Africa, and oceans. The team identified the inadequacy of existing weather forecasts during their previous work at Urban Sky, where they struggled with inaccurate wind predictions due to a lack of high-quality data at higher altitudes. Sorcerer's balloons ascend and descend between sea level and 65,000 feet multiple times daily, gathering vertical data soundings essential for accurate weather forecasting. Each balloon is lightweight and can be launched globally, utilizing satellite communication and solar power for operation. The company aims to deploy hundreds of these systems to enhance weather data collection in data-sparse areas, potentially revolutionizing forecasting accuracy through unique data collection and AI model training. Sorcerer’s approach could allow for thousands of balloons to be maintained in the atmosphere at a fraction of the cost of a single weather satellite, providing a promising solution to the growing challenges posed by climate-related disasters.
- Sorcerer's weather balloons can operate for over six months and collect extensive atmospheric data.
- The startup addresses significant gaps in weather data collection, particularly in under-monitored regions.
- Each balloon is lightweight, can be launched globally, and uses satellite communication and solar power.
- The company aims to enhance forecasting accuracy through unique data collection and AI model training.
- Sorcerer's approach could allow for thousands of balloons to be maintained at a lower cost than traditional weather satellites.
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- Many commenters express enthusiasm for the project and its potential to improve weather forecasting accuracy.
- Several questions focus on technical aspects, such as data transfer, telemetry, and the handling of large data volumes.
- There is interest in the regulatory challenges of launching balloons, especially in urban areas.
- Commenters inquire about the environmental impact and cleanup of the balloons after their use.
- Some users suggest potential collaborations or offer their expertise to assist with the project.
50 commentsAsking because my research at the University of Oxford was around hyper space-efficient data transfer from remote locations for a fraction of the price.
The result was an award-winning technology (https://jsonbinpack.sourcemeta.com) to serialise plain JSON that was proven to be more space-efficient than every tested alternative (including Protocol Buffers, Apache Avro, ASN.1, etc) in every tested case (https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.12799).
If it's interesting, I'd love to connect and discuss (jv@jviotti.com) how at least the open-source offering could help.
“ Each vehicle (balloon + payload) weighs less than a pound and can be launched from anywhere in the world, per the FAA and ICAO reg”
Florida recently passed a law that does not allow PicoBalloon or your weather balloon type launches from Florida soil. It will result in a $150 fine.
HB321
https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2024/321/BillText/er/P...
Article
https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/floridas-balloon-ban-will...
This sentence is legendary
Can help with the federal contract side and mass manufacturing etc.
Charles@turnsys.com
Does that surprise someone? I think I would not have guessed this growth to be on such a scale. The chart suggests that severe storms are the main culprit.
It would be very cool if you could do an open house for bay area geeks to come and just ooh and ahh at the gadgetry. Even a virtual open house would be cool. Something less than a full demo, and more focused on the story behind the gestation and launch of the project (and then a demo.)
[0] https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/industry/hard-tech
Takes into account lots of stuff (e.g. attenuation from air, ozone, and water vapor) with the goal of estimating solar power at any altitude/latitude/day/time.
Also, your website runs like a dog, and make me not want to find out. It runs like a dog displaying dots ... on a sphere. With like, four (4), other images of note. Seriously, talk to one of these WASM demo people, this is sad for a company that posts here. "Book a Demo" with somebody that can write WebGL. I booked and canceled an appointment on Thu (4) Aug (8) 22, 2024 8:00 on your incredibly vague G. Calendar signup. It's a 42 joke. Learn WebGL.
And while you're at it, stop making websites that write 1000x / $ and "Book a Demo" without even vaguely mentioning cost. Give me a $100,000, I'll give you a $100. This sounds like an excellent business from my perspective. How bout you hand me your bank account, and I'll hand you $100.
"Worldwide, most radiosonde observations are taken daily at 00Z and 12Z (6 a.m. and 6 p.m. EST)" - NOAA.gov
I know we get more weather data from other sources, but it seems insane that these 2 launch times per day (per balloon location) are what make up most of our current weather forecasting data.
You mentioned solar. Do you have the capability (or plans) to run these over night as well?
If it's not proprietary, I'd love to know - how do you "steer" vertically between different wind layers to move in the direction you want to go?
Can't wait to see where you guys take this!
1) What parameters are you measuring ? Did you think about also measuring gases?
2) What's your business model?
I saw in a response you said the balloons will periodically return to sea level and ascend (which sounds like a fun design challenge by itself.) Will you be doing so near populated areas as well?
Good luck!
One question that came to mind, and this applies to all weather baloons not yours specifically, with the large number of weather balloons launched daily, how is it That more aren’t sucked into airplane engines causing potential disaster for the airplane? Thanks
One difference though is that the ARGO floats are unfortunately not recycled, and just wash up on various beaches. (I'm curious whether you think you can realistically collect many of these mini balloons?)
If you do want to control the lateral position of fleets of sensors, oceanographers also now have "gliders", which are basically small powered drone submarines. These are used by a few groups, but most of the gliders in the world are operated by the US Navy, who launch them out of torpedo tubes to survey local ocean conditions (which is badass).
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ocean-gliders.html
The recorded measurements present an interesting data assimilation challenge - they record data along 3D trajectories (4D including time), sampling jagged and twisting lines through the 4D space. But we normally prefer to think of weather/ocean data as gridded, so you need to interpolate the trajectory data onto the grid, whilst keeping the result physically-consistent. Oceanographers use systems like ECCO for ocean state estimation, which effectively find the "ocean of best fit" to various data sources.
Interestingly ECCO uses an auto-differentiable form of the governing equations for the ocean flow to ensure that updates stay physically consistent. This works by using a differentiable ocean fluid model called [MITgcm](https://github.com/MITgcm/MITgcm) to perform runs which match experimental data as closely as possible, and minimizing a loss function through gradient descent. The gradient is of a loss function (error) with respect to model input parameters + forcings, which is calculated by running MITgcm in adjoint mode - i.e. automatic differentation. Therefore this approach is sort of ML before it was cool (they were doing all this well before the new batch of AI weather models). See slides 9-18 of this deck for a nice explanation
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/firescript-577a2...
The trajectory data is also interesting because it's sort of tabular, but also you often want to query it in an array-like 4D space. You could also call it a "ragged" array. We have nice open-source tools for gridded (non-ragged) arrays (e.g. xarray and zarr, and the pangeo.io project) but I think we could provide scientists with better tools for trajectory-like data in general. If that seems relevant to you I would love to chat.
P.S: Sorceror seems awesome, and I applaud you for working on something hard-tech & climate-tech!
Sorcerer was also an amazing Infocom game. Good company.
Are you hiring? This is really exciting work.
So you really think you can launch a giant network of balloons and have that data integrated into the NOAA/NCEP model suite? Even if you get over the red tape it will take 10 years + to integrate this shit into the data assimilation program. You claim that you can input your balloon data into magical AI and it produces better forecasts than what the GFS? What is the standard of measurement I dont actually believe you at all
the idea sounds great tho!
Related
New NOAA GOES-U satellite will track weather for most of Western Hemisphere
NOAA's GOES-U satellite, launched by SpaceX Falcon Heavy, will enhance weather observations with a solar coronagraph. Completing the GOES-R series, it ensures data availability for NOAA forecasters until the 2030s.
BOA27: An open source, open hardware, leafleting, smart balloon
The GitHub project BOA27 aims to create a cost-effective smart leafleting balloon for North Koreans. It includes design, materials, navigation, payloads, and aims to provide crucial information access. Contact project contributors for more details.
Startups building balloons to hoist tourists 100k feet into the stratosphere
Startups Zephalto, Space Perspective, and World View are developing high-altitude balloon rides for tourists, offering unique Earth views. Tickets range $50,000-$184,000. Companies are optimistic about consumer interest in this market.
Stratospheric Optical Earth Observation
Strat-Observer offers global stratospheric Earth observation services with optical payload for High Altitude Platforms. It complements Airbus' satellites, providing enhanced performance for defense, maritime, security, and environmental sectors. The system enables persistent surveillance and instant data access, supporting various applications.
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