Linux market share approaching 4.5% for first time, could hit 5% by 1Q25

Microsoft seems determined to push people away from Windows with its user-hostile tactics—built-in ads, constant nagging about Edge, and forced OneDrive backups. It's really soured my experience. I’m done with Windows personally. While I have to use Win11 at work, I won't use it anywhere I have a choice.

Statcounter's data is based off hits to a certain websites. Not unique hits but hits. It's really hard to see their data as worthwhile from my perspective.

This is already desktop stats, a market that isn't really growing. Then figure they're unlikely to be partnered with anyone like Facebook, Tiktok, or Discord, the sites that 90% of users spend most of their time on.

Think of the remaining internet they might have deals with, does that seem representative of users as a whole? Now add in that it's based on hits, with no reason to suspect they're effectively filtering out bots. I don't see the value of such data.

Desktop and laptop sales have been declining worldwide for years and while laptops have dipped up in 2023 desktops continued their downward trend.

My hunch it’s less that people have suddenly discovered Linux and more that desktop sales have been slipping for a long long time so either it’s shifted to Apple or people stick with just phones and tablets. Thus it’s not necessarily that Linux market share has increased because of increasing numbers vs a dedicated minority sticking with a dying market segment.

Every time I see this, I refer to Krazam's brilliant video about LinuxCon Worldwide. https://youtu.be/nUsDk8wjRPs?si=KnSxBan1QV5WVwih

I truly believe that once Linux solves its app packaging problem it could go mainstream for casual use on home laptops. (Office machines obviously are a different beast, needing Microsoft Office\365 support, etc).

We're 99% of the way to being able to hand an everyday person a laptop with Linux on it and have them have a decent experience - but they need to be able to go to a website and download a program without screwing around with package managers and wondering if someone's even made a package for their distro. Flatpak and Snap are great, but then you still have to worry about which of those, if any, your computer supports. That's fine for anyone on Hacker News, but it's not fine for my parents or most people who don't take a special interest in tech.

If they do that, 2078 really could be the year of the Linux Desktop. But in the meantime we'll all have been using Steam Decks anyway.

Tho if it does become mainstream I do admit I'll miss feeling special and smart.

One of these years, it'll be the year of the Linux desktop.

Just you wait.

If linux hits 5% this would be huge news and something Microsoft should be taking note.

Reminds me of an old Red Hat advert likely from the late 90s, based on the following quote (I cannot remember who said this.. gandhi???) :-

- First they ignore you - Then they laugh at you - Then they fight you - Then you win

At the end of the advert it said something like "You are here" which shows an aeroplane about to take off... just a matter of time before it leaves the ground. Its kinda symbolic to tell you its just a matter of time.

Of course, things have changed since this advert as the last 10 years Microsoft have been open towards Linux. While they are contributors, I still have doubts of their intentions. Personally, I view Microsofts strategy to control the GNU/Linux ecosystem not by the OS but their software. If they manage to win Linux distributions to use their tools by default (MS SQL Server, .NET, Powershell, etc) - would give them a lot of control!

Of course, linux admins might laugh at that idea... use Powershell? Please! -- But microsoft have some great influence due to their money and advertisement. Things could change drastically in the next 10-15 years.

Imagine big businesses using .NET or SQL Server and start to use Linux over Windows. Big businesses will happily throw support money. Makes you wonder how distributions will alter their views in a few short years.

Despite all I covered, Microsofts decisions on Windows 11 is baffling. At the end of the day, I just want a vanilla install of Windows. If there is a peice of software or feature I want -- I will install it or turn it on myself. Windows is no longer viewed as an Operating system but a full on IoT Service.

It just moves more people over to GNU/Linux. I only have 1 laptop using Windows at home - and I only have it for a job. I leave this job soon and when I do, the first thing I am doing is wiping Windows 11 for Debian.

I have Steam... so as long as I can play my favourite games on Linux (which are not the latest games) I am good! Despite being a Linux user for many years, I am still behind on the gaming side.

Maybe this 4.5% is just the technical crowd?

Now that windows UX is getting shittier, if there's a linux distro usuable without ever pulling up a terminal, maybe linux has some chance with non technical people.

> Linux market share of desktop operating systems

This is measuring Desktop share, in case you’re curious.

Given that mobile is > 50% Linux (android). And I have to imagine server Linux share similar.

I set my user agent to Windows Chrome most of the time to minimize hassles. Linux usage is guaranteed to be higher than the official numbers.

All the games I play are working on Linux without issues, no need to waste time with whatever is left of Windows.

I use Linux on my servers and would love to use it on my laptop.

But there is Outlook and some corporate tools - it should be possible to find workarounds but I am not sure of that (how to read my PSTs for instance).

I try every 2 years for the last ... not sure ... probably 30 years to switch, the time is coming for a new test.

Are we sure these are desktops like Ubuntu or something a little bit miscategorized, like Android or ChromeOS?

It comes down to the fact that Linux is just so damn easy nowadays.

Are those mostly tech people or is it the general public?

I recently switched to Elementary OS and for the first time I could imagine a world with sizeable market share.

That 3.1% -> 4.5% -> 5% would be a very large acceleration from the previous trend.

Linux distros should collaborate on a unified feedback initiative to boost adoption. The major distributions (Ubuntu, Fedora, OpenSUSE, etc.) could create a joint survey site targeting Windows users who have tried Linux but reverted back. This would provide invaluable data on pain points preventing wider Linux adoption.Questions like: What Windows-specific software or functionality did you miss most on Linux? If you could change one thing about Linux, what would it be? What was your primary reason for returning to Windows?

how do they meausre this?

I mean, is it counting distro hopping fresh installs?

or simultanous concurrent running sessions (telemetry hell) ?