September 20th, 2024

UK Debt Hits 100% of GDP, Highest Level Since 1960s

UK national debt has hit 100% of GDP, with August borrowing at £13.7 billion. Labour faces pressure to address economic challenges amid declining consumer confidence and rising public spending.

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UK Debt Hits 100% of GDP, Highest Level Since 1960s

UK national debt has reached 100% of GDP, the highest level since the 1960s, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This increase of 4.3 percentage points over the past year coincides with a significant rise in government borrowing, which hit £13.7 billion in August, marking the third highest deficit for that month since records began in 1993. The Labour Party, led by Rachel Reeves, is facing mounting pressure to address the economic challenges ahead of the upcoming budget on October 30. Concerns about consumer confidence have also emerged, with a recent GfK report indicating a sharp decline in sentiment, attributed to fears over potential cuts to welfare benefits and increased taxes. The Labour government has warned that it may need to make "painful" decisions to manage the economic situation, including scrapping winter fuel payments for pensioners and delaying social care reforms. Despite a rise in tax receipts, increased public spending and benefits have outpaced income, complicating the fiscal landscape. Economists suggest that the government's approach to fiscal tightening could further impact consumer confidence and economic growth.

- UK national debt has reached 100% of GDP, the highest since 1961.

- Government borrowing in August was £13.7 billion, the third highest deficit for that month on record.

- Consumer confidence has sharply declined, raising concerns about the impact of potential budget cuts.

- Labour warns of "painful" decisions needed to address the economic challenges.

- Increased public spending is outpacing tax receipts, complicating fiscal management.

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By @segasaturn - 7 months
What happened the last time UK debt hit 100%? I don't remember the 1960s as being particularly tough times for the UK, other than the IRA bombings.

Edit:

> Considered by conventional macroeconomic metrics, the 1960s can claim to be one of the UK’s most economically successful decades. GDP growth averaged 3.5%, unemployment 2.7% and inflation 3.5%. Real disposable household income per head was 25% greater by the end of the 1960s than it was at the end of the 1950s. However, such figures fail to take account of the trajectory of developments over the course of the decade, which tended largely in a negative direction. As well as slowing growth in real disposable household incomes and the declining profitability of industry, this trajectory can also be seen with respect to inflation and unemployment. As can be seen in table 3, inflation and the unemployment rate began the decade at 1.0% and 2.1% respectively, but gradually ratcheted up with every stop-go cycle. By 1969 inflation was 5.4% and unemployment 3.5%, a post-war high.

From https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/the-uk-economy-in-the-196...

By @naveen99 - 7 months
Economists love debt. Some even like inflation… like Richard Koo: https://youtu.be/KRSpfG6hRTQ?si=qx8DcIm891hN5dTy

I just want some honesty and transparency. If you are going to let in migrants, do it transparently…

By @churchill - 7 months
Yet another reason why I love Singapore: by law, the budget must be balanced over every parliamentary term. So, they never accumulate runaway debt. And that's before you count the $2.5 trillion reserves they have across Temasek, GIC, CPF, and MAS. And that's for a country of just 6 million people.

Even the Arab petro-states that literally scoop money from the ground haven't saved that much! (Highest is Saudi Arabia with $1 trillion.)

Edit: in case you're wondering, no, there's no catch: Singapore has ultra-modern infrastructure, great healthcare, and they're enviable in every way.

By @inglor_cz - 7 months
It is somewhat alarming that almost no developed economy seems to be capable of having a balanced budget. Maybe it is an aftereffect of aging and bad birth rates - slow erosion of the taxpayer base.

Given that debt cannot grow to infinity, something will give way one day.

By @ksec - 7 months
Japan's Debt also passed 250% of GDP in 2020. We really need to look into a lot deeper into the word GDP and Debt rather than just focusing on the 100% or 200% part.
By @jellicle - 7 months
The UK, which creates UK pounds, can pay off these UK pound debts any time it likes; any day between lunch and tea time that it decides to do so, it can.

Discussions of sovereign debts as if they were the same as debts owed by individuals are laughable.

The stated actions planned by Labour (generally impoverishing the populace and slowing the economy) will have the effect of increasing the notional indebtedness of the UK, not decreasing it.