September 30th, 2024

The box problem that baffled the boffins

The box problem by Alex Bellos shows Andrew is more likely to find a prize first than Barbara due to the order of searching, intriguing mathematicians with its surprising probability outcomes.

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The box problem that baffled the boffins

The box problem presented by Alex Bellos involves two players, Andrew and Barbara, searching for prizes hidden in a grid of fifteen boxes. Andrew searches row by row, while Barbara searches column by column. The puzzle's counter-intuitive result reveals that Andrew is more likely to find a prize first, despite initial assumptions that both players would have equal chances. The key factor is that there are two prizes, and the game ends when the first prize is found. If both prizes are in boxes that Andrew reaches first, he wins; if both are in boxes Barbara reaches first, she wins. However, when one prize is in Andrew's box and the other in Barbara's, Andrew has a slight advantage because he tends to reach his boxes earlier. This puzzle, originally posed by Timothy Chow in 2010, has intrigued mathematicians due to its surprising outcome and the challenge it presents in finding an intuitive explanation for why Andrew has the edge.

- Andrew is more likely to find a prize first than Barbara.

- The puzzle involves two players searching for prizes in a grid of boxes.

- The outcome is influenced by the order in which the players open the boxes.

- The puzzle has been a topic of interest among mathematicians since its introduction.

- It highlights the complexities of probability and intuition in game theory.

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By @Mattasher - 5 months
The intuition here that helped me understand this is that, if you know the search strategy of another player in advance, your best best is to "front run" where they will look as much as possible. So in the ideal case, look in the very next box they are going to look in each round. This guarantees that unless they guess right on the first round, you will get to the gift first.

The rows and columns thing is just a less perfect, but still useful, way for Andrew to front run Barbara's choices more often than the reverse happens.

By @CamperBob2 - 5 months
One of those rare cases where Gemini Advanced outsmarts o1-preview. Gemini understood the importance of wasted turns when one player opens a box already checked by the other, and understood that this effect would penalize Barbara more than Andrew.

But of course these models are just stochastic parrots locked in a Chinese room. They don't "understand" anything, so never mind, nothing to see here.