Software estimates have never worked and never will

David Heinemeier Hansson argues that software estimation has consistently failed over the decades, particularly for medium to large projects. He contends that as software development becomes routine, it transitions into products or services that can be purchased rather than built. Most software development today focuses on novel work, which is inherently unpredictable, making upfront specifications ineffective. Past attempts to define novel work have often resulted in solutions that do not address real problems, leading to a cycle of misdirection and rework. Hansson advocates for abandoning traditional estimation methods in favor of a budget-based approach, as outlined in his Shape Up methodology. He asserts that programmers can deliver quality software on time when the scope is flexible and open to negotiation during development. This approach allows for necessary trade-offs and adjustments, ultimately leading to better outcomes. Hansson emphasizes that great software emerges from a process that accommodates human creativity and adaptability, rather than rigid estimations.

- Software estimation has historically failed, especially for complex projects.

- The focus of software development has shifted to novel work, which is unpredictable.

- Traditional methods of defining work upfront often lead to ineffective solutions.

- A budget-based approach allows for flexibility and better software delivery.

- Embracing negotiation during development can lead to superior outcomes.