November 21st, 2024

The Case Against Quantum Computing (2018)

Quantum computing shows promise for revolutionizing industries but faces significant technical challenges and skepticism about practical implementation, with experts divided on its feasibility and timeline for development.

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The Case Against Quantum Computing (2018)

Quantum computing has garnered significant attention for its potential to revolutionize various fields, yet skepticism remains regarding its practical implementation. Despite decades of research and substantial financial investment from governments and corporations, tangible results have been elusive. Proponents claim that quantum computers could transform industries by solving complex problems faster than classical computers, particularly in areas like drug discovery and cryptography. However, the technical challenges are immense. Experts estimate that a functional quantum computer would require between 1,000 and 100,000 qubits, leading to a staggering number of continuous parameters that must be managed—far exceeding the number of subatomic particles in the observable universe. This complexity raises concerns about error management, as conventional error-correction methods may not suffice for the vast scale of quantum computations. While some researchers remain optimistic about achieving practical quantum computing within the next few decades, others, including seasoned physicists, express doubt about its feasibility in the foreseeable future. The ongoing race to develop quantum technology may be driven more by the fear of falling behind than by genuine progress, leaving the ultimate realization of quantum computing uncertain.

- Quantum computing promises breakthroughs but has yet to deliver practical results after decades of research.

- A functional quantum computer may require managing an unmanageable number of parameters, complicating error correction.

- Experts remain divided on the timeline for achieving useful quantum computing, with some predicting decades of further development.

- The race for quantum technology is fueled by competition rather than clear advancements in the field.

Link Icon 5 comments
By @didgetmaster - 5 months
The article is now 6 years old. Has anyone made significant progress in that time to solve the problems it discussed in a real way?
By @ash - 5 months
Interesting observation about the maximum lifetime of a bubble:

> I believe that, appearances to the contrary, the quantum computing fervor is nearing its end. That's because a few decades is the maximum lifetime of any big bubble in technology or science. After a certain period, too many unfulfilled promises have been made, and anyone who has been following the topic starts to get annoyed by further announcements of impending breakthroughs. What's more, by that time all the tenured faculty positions in the field are already occupied. The proponents have grown older and less zealous, while the younger generation seeks something completely new and more likely to succeed.

By @glitchc - 5 months
> In quantum computing, the classical two-state circuit element (the transistor) is replaced by a quantum element called a quantum bit, or qubit.

> In contrast to a classical bit, which can only be in one of its two basic states, a qubit can be in any of a continuum of possible states, as defined by the values of the quantum amplitudes α and β.

The thing is a transistor also exists in multiple states, and the transition between states is a continuous function. Anyone with some exposure to solid state physics will know this. It's a thresholding operation that turns what is a pure analog component into something digital. That IEEE published this surprises me, after all the well known Journal of Solid State Circuits is full of transistor designs behaving in decidedly analog (read: continuous) ways.

By @MichaelRo - 5 months
Quantum computing is a narrow, specialized case of analog computing. To drivel on that replacing general purpose digital computers shows the incredibly retarded level of public perception of what computers are.

It's replacing the PC with this: https://www.analogmuseum.org/english/collection/meda/43/