Foust Forward: Who's afraid of the big bad Starship? – SpaceNews
SpaceX's Starship test flight sparks industry debates. ESA's skepticism about competitiveness, concerns on refueling needs for missions beyond low Earth orbit, and industry's recognition of SpaceX's innovation and competition.
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SpaceX's Starship rocket recently underwent a test flight, sparking debates about its impact on the space industry. ESA's director of space transportation, Toni Tolker-Nielsen, expressed skepticism about Starship's competitiveness against Europe's Ariane 6, leading to ridicule on social media. Industry experts suggest that Starship's initial focus will be on launching the Starlink constellation and supporting NASA's lunar program before entering the commercial satellite launch market. Concerns were raised about Starship's suitability for missions beyond low Earth orbit due to potential refueling needs. Competitors like ULA emphasized their rockets' optimization for different mission profiles, highlighting the diversity of options in the market. Despite doubts, industry insiders acknowledge SpaceX's track record of overcoming challenges and caution against underestimating Starship's potential impact. The evolving landscape of space missions, including the rise of megaconstellations, adds complexity to predicting Starship's future success. Overall, the industry anticipates continued innovation and competition, recognizing the value of diverse approaches in advancing space exploration.
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2 commentsFor now it seems the SpaceX is in the game of their own, and going to stay there probably this decade - and maybe even longer. They are going to dominate the world launch industry, and the world payload industry are going to adjust to the capabilities and availability of the Starship.
With Falcon-9, when the first stage reusability became the norm, and payload was welcome, and the external - outside the SpaceX demand was slow, SpaceX answered with their own Starlink program. Starlink demand allowed Falcons to fly frequently, maintaining low costs of launches, while offering cheap delivery of hundreds of satellites to the biggest LEO orbital system. Starlink benefited greatly from this launch capability, and now is turning a profit. Similarly, when Starships will routinely fly, the question will be, what they are going to carry? And, unless enough interest is demonstrated outside of SpaceX - manned space flights, for various reasons? scientific missions? space manufacture (proteins, chips?) or industry (orbital solar energy?) flights? - SpaceX could invent it's own customer, which is capable of consuming a lot of potential the Starship offers. Like, for example, lunar base construction, which Elon Musk mentions sometimes - that one can both use a lot of Starships and offer some interesting commercial opportunities...
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