SpaceX's unmatched streak of perfection with the Falcon 9 rocket is over
SpaceX faced an upper stage engine failure during the Starlink 9-3 mission, causing satellites to deploy into a lower orbit. The incident may impact future crew launches, emphasizing the need to investigate and resolve the malfunction swiftly to maintain launch schedules and reliability.
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SpaceX's streak of successful Falcon 9 rocket launches came to an end when an upper stage engine failure occurred during the Starlink 9-3 mission from California. The failure led to the deployment of Starlink satellites into a lower orbit than planned. Elon Musk confirmed the engine failure and mentioned a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly event. The investigation into the failure could impact upcoming crew launches, including the Polaris Dawn mission and NASA's crew mission. While SpaceX can quickly replace the lost satellites, the focus is on understanding and resolving the engine malfunction to resume launches. The incident marks the first in-flight failure for SpaceX's Falcon rocket family since 2015, potentially affecting the company's launch schedule and customer missions. SpaceX's ability to swiftly address the issue and return to flight will be crucial in maintaining its high launch cadence and reliability.
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12 commentsMost importantly, we can tune risk and and reward across the production line; the crewed Falcon 9/Dragon launches are far more conservative than their Starlink + rideshare ones.
> Numerous chunks of ice fell away from the rocket as the upper stage engine powered into orbit, but the Merlin Vacuum, or M-Vac, engine appeared to complete its first burn as planned. A leak in the oxidizer system or a problem with insulation could lead to ice accumulation, although the exact cause, and its possible link to the engine malfunction later in flight, will be the focus of SpaceX's investigation into the failure.
> A second burn with the upper stage engine was supposed to raise the perigee, or low point, of the rocket's orbit well above the atmosphere before releasing 20 Starlink satellites [...].
> "Upper stage restart to raise perigee resulted in an engine RUD for reasons currently unknown," Musk wrote...
For Falcon 9 manned launches, there are a whole series of abort modes and we-didn't-get-to-orbit splashdown locations:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/05/examining-crew-drago...
It'd be interesting to know where in this mission's flight profile, if it had been manned, the launch director would have ordered an abort. That LOX leaks often lead to explosions is Rocket Science 101.
In a similar vein, I think proper risk acceptance policies shouldn't say "security/safety is our #1 priority", just like a good SLA doesn't guarantee 100% uptime. When you set a 99.9% uptime SLA, make sure you're actually down sometimes. When you want efficient rockets, you have to see some of them crash.
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