What if the A.I. Boosters Are Wrong?

A skeptical paper by Daron Acemoglu, a labor economist at M.I.T., has sparked a debate on whether artificial intelligence (A.I.) will significantly boost productivity. Acemoglu's paper suggests that A.I. may only lead to modest improvements in worker productivity, contrary to more optimistic predictions. While some, like Sam Altman and Jensen Huang, envision A.I. eradicating poverty and revolutionizing industries, Acemoglu remains cautious. He believes A.I. can automate routine tasks but questions its ability to enhance problem-solving skills or tackle complex challenges. Critics warn of a potential speculative bubble in A.I. investments, while others like Lynda Gratton see promise in A.I.'s potential for innovation. Acemoglu emphasizes the need for A.I. to automate around 40% of a worker's tasks to significantly impact productivity. The debate underscores the uncertainty surrounding A.I.'s transformative potential and its implications for addressing economic stagnation and workforce challenges in aging societies.