Global Population to Shrink This Century as Birth Rates Fall
A UN report forecasts a global population decline by 2100 due to decreasing birth rates. Factors include changing values and fertility preferences. This shift may impact climate change and economies worldwide.
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A UN report predicts a global population decline this century due to falling birth rates. The World Population Prospects report estimates a peak of around 10.3 billion people by 2080, decreasing to 10.2 billion by 2100. This contrasts with previous forecasts of continuous growth. Factors contributing to lower birth rates include changing values and fertility preferences. Over half of countries already have birth rates below the population replacement level. Europe is expected to experience a 21% population decline by 2100. The reduction in population could have positive effects on mitigating climate change by reducing carbon-intensive activities. Economists suggest that a shrinking population may alleviate pressures on infrastructure but could strain public finances due to an aging population. The UN recommends leveraging technology to enhance productivity and extend working lives in rapidly aging societies. This demographic shift poses challenges and opportunities for economies worldwide.
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5 commentsI'm not a doomsayer that believes that there are way too many of us for the planet to support (IMO we're just bad at distributing resources equitably), but I can't help but assume that fewer people here and there will create less pressure on natural ecosystems.
Certainly it would be bad if the population kept shrinking down to nothing (well, bad for humans, anyway), but I don't think some ups and downs here and there should be cause for much alarm.
Regardless, though, they're talking about having 200M fewer people than expected in 2100, with a total population of 10.2B. Is 2% really going to be that noticeable? And the actual population drop (from 10.3B in 2080 to 10.2B in 2100) they're talking about is only 100M people, or about 1%.
The classic example would probably be Make Room! Make Room! (the very loose basis for the film Soylent Green), where a United States of 344 million people is so massively crammed and overpopulated that the average person lives on strictly rationed water and food.
That’s a big shift.
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