July 20th, 2024

Argentina's economy is growing beyond expectations

Argentina's economy grows unexpectedly under President Milei, surpassing predictions. IMF anticipates a rebound in 2025 despite concerns over rising poverty rates due to austerity measures and inflation. Milei's strategies face economic and social challenges, risking voter support erosion.

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Argentina's economy is growing beyond expectations

Argentina's economy has shown unexpected growth under President Javier Milei, with a 1.3% increase in economic activity from April, surpassing analyst predictions. Despite having the worst projected economic growth among major economies, the International Monetary Fund anticipates a rebound in 2025. Milei, known for his radical economic approach, has implemented austerity measures to combat inflation, deviating from his initial extreme proposals like adopting the US dollar. However, concerns arise as poverty rates continue to climb due to currency devaluation and high inflation, leading to protests against government spending cuts. While Milei's strategies have initially shown positive results, they come at a significant economic and social cost, with Argentina facing a history of financial crises and defaults. Analysts warn that Milei's support is fragile, and failure to deliver on economic promises could erode his voter base.

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Link Icon 8 comments
By @gtirloni - 6 months
I hope they make out of this recent recession but people should be cautious in using words like "the economy surged" when describing a 1.3% increase in economic activity.

If anything, Argentina is known for being a economic rollercoaster fueled by populist after populist government. It never works out and the current situation seems like more of the same.

By @ayakang31415 - 6 months
Since the beginning of 2024, official exchange rate of Argentina peso to USD is relatively flat compared to the declining rate before Milei was elected. To me, this indicates that inflation is slowly stablizing. But I know there is also "unofficial" exchange rate people use in Argentina. Does anyone know how the unofficial exchange rate?
By @1oooqooq - 6 months
interesting puff piece.

The real title is "metrics foreign banks look at are rising because that's the only thing being focused. metrics for actual well being down". It's all there between the lines in their source reports.

I expect a huge, huge, loan soon. Then temporary reprieve for the population with some populist actions. Right around re-election.

By @sanbor - 6 months
Last trimester of 2023 poverty was 44.8% and first trimester of 2024 with the new government poverty is 55.5% on the rise[1]. That is 10.7% increase of poverty in 4 months, or 2,6% increase in poverty every month of the new government. I don’t completely blame the new government for the rapid increase in poverty but austerity measures such as firing people working in the public sector and reducing social assistance contributed a lot.

[1] https://www.ambito.com/economia/la-pobreza-trepo-al-555-el-p...

By @0xbadc0de5 - 6 months
It's not that the title is hyperbolic, it's that expectations were so low that even modest growth is a headline making event.

I'm going to reserve judgement for a while longer and stay cautiously optimistic. The Argentinians are good people. If the current government successfully steers them away from the last century of economic turmoil, this can only be a good thing for them and for the world.

By @ks2048 - 6 months
This is an interesting case study in how a reporter decides to word some basic facts. Here, the economy "surged by 1.3%", but in the cited source (Bloomberg), the economy "rose by 1.3%".

That article also has more stats and context: https://archive.ph/zQdyP