United States Discloses Nuclear Warhead Numbers; Restores Nuclear Transparency
The United States reveals 3,748 nuclear warheads in its arsenal. Federation of American Scientists supports transparency, urging other nations to follow. Importance stressed for trust-building, countering misinformation, and promoting global security.
Read original article
The United States has disclosed the number of nuclear warheads in its military stockpile, showcasing a total of 3,748 warheads as of September 2023. This move towards nuclear transparency by the Biden Administration is praised by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), urging other nuclear-armed states to follow suit. The disclosed information also reveals that only 69 retired nuclear warheads were dismantled last year, the lowest number since 1994. FAS emphasizes the importance of transparency in reducing mistrust, preventing worst-case planning, and countering misinformation about nuclear threats. The FAS has a long-standing commitment to advocating for responsible transparency on nuclear weapons issues, aiming to provide factual information to support deterrence and reassurance missions. The organization believes that transparency on stockpile and dismantlement numbers is crucial for international security, democratic values, and informed public debate. The FAS encourages other nuclear-armed states to disclose their stockpile numbers to promote global nuclear transparency and reduce the risk of arms races.
Related
As Iran Picks a President, a Nuclear Shift: Open Talk About Building the Bomb
Iran has expanded its nuclear production, hinting at weapon development. The US and Israel are concerned about Iran's growing nuclear capabilities, raising international alarm over the situation's uncertainty and potential risks.
Visualizing All the Nuclear Waste in the World
Nuclear power contributes 10% of global electricity. A collaboration visualizes existing nuclear waste types and disposal needs. High-level waste is less than 0.25% of total radioactive waste. Nuclear industry waste is minimal compared to other sectors.
Not to Worry, Only the President Can Launch Nukes, Pentagon Report Says
A Pentagon report emphasizes the President's exclusive authority to launch nuclear weapons, prompted by concerns during the Jan. 6 riot. The "nuclear football" system ensures only the President can authorize a strike.
A New Specialized Train Is Ready to Haul Nuclear Waste
A specialized Atlas railcar is developed to transport spent nuclear fuel in the U.S. DOE faces moving 140,000+ tonnes of SNF by 2060. Atlas passed tests, costing $33 million, meeting strict transport standards.
Nuclear Is Back
President Biden signed the ADVANCE Act, promoting new nuclear technologies and reducing licensing fees. Despite bipartisan support, some Democratic officials express hesitancy towards nuclear energy, posing challenges for expansion. The Act aims to advance nuclear power development, emphasizing its importance for energy transition.
- Concerns about the rapid rearmament capabilities of the U.S. if needed, questioning the significance of current stockpile numbers.
- Mixed feelings about transparency, with some applauding it while others see it as a reminder of the destructive power still held by the U.S.
- Discussion on the effectiveness and deployment status of the current warheads compared to historical stockpiles.
- Speculation about the strategic messaging behind the disclosure, particularly in relation to Russia and tactical nuclear capabilities.
- Questions about the motivations for the disclosure and whether it aligns with international treaties or pressures from other nuclear powers.
14 commentsBecause if they could start churning out a dozen or a hundred a week within a short period of time, why does the standing arsenal really matter? Does it really make a difference in global safety or geopolitics? I don’t know the first thing about the topic so this is all genuine curiosity, and I feel like the googling required to get an answer would put me on lists I don’t really feel like being on.
Apart from the absolute number, is the collection of current weapons "more effective" (whatever that would mean -- some sort of fit for purpose) than the ~23K warheads at the end of the cold war? Or is it simply a subset of the devices in 1989, with some maintenance since then?
I believe the US is designing a new warhead, maybe the first since the end of the cold war (source, discussion at the nuclear testing museum in Las Vegas last month, perhaps not the most reliable source). What about delivery?
Even with a 90% interception rate, 300 nukes would be enough to kill tens of millions of citizens of any country from the blast alone. If an enemy leader isn't deterred by that, 2700 extra nukes aren't going to change their mind.
Current warheads = 3.7k
I wonder how long a nuke in storage lasts - ie, how much work does it take to maintain a stockpile of x nukes, and if you can turn those swords into ploughshares relatively easily.
1, 4, 8, etc. per warhead, thereby increasing your capability while claiming a reduction?
sorry I couldn't resist
There is currently a perception of a disparity of capabilities in tactical nukes. There is parity in strategic nukes because of the New Start treaty [1].
Here's a report to the US Senate about the tactical nukes [2] produced in April 2024, and here's a quote by Putin lifted from that report:
> On June 16, 2023, President Putin declared, “We have more such [tactical] nuclear weapons than NATO countries. They know about it and never stop trying to persuade us to start nuclear reduction talks. Like hell we will …. It is our competitive advantage.”
Then how many tactical nukes do Russia and the US have? The perception was that Russia has between 1000 and 2000 and the US just a few hundred, but the numbers were uncertain.
I think this report sends the message that the US has thousands of such tactical weapons, not just a few hundred. The message is not exactly spelled out but here's my reading.
The only current tactical nuke in the US arsenal is the B61 [3]. More than 3000 were built, but it's not clear how many are still available today. The latest versions are B61-12 and B61-13, of which 400 were supposed to be made (in total, not each). The current number of B61-12 and B61-13 is not available, and I saw an estimate of 100 [4].
With this report, we can infer the total number of B61. How? The number of strategic warheads is capped at 1550. The latest US report [5] is that the number as of January this year was 1419, but this includes heavy bombers (B52, B1 and B2), of which there are 60, so actual deployed strategic warheads are 1359.
The total number in the nuclear stockpile according to this new transparency report is 3748. The report explains what this number represents:
> all types of nuclear weapons, including deployed and non-deployed, and strategic and non-strategic.
I can't find number of non-deployed strategic warheads, but I think it should be very small, otherwise the arms treaty is a total joke. The difference between deployed and non-deployed is quite minimal, for example the non-deployed weapons have their tritium bottles removed.
So my guess is that the majority of the 2389 number above is B61 tactical nukes. Not all of them are deployed or active, but they can become so in a very short timespan.
I think this is the message that the US is trying to send.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_START
[2] https://www.state.gov/report-on-the-status-of-tactical-nonst...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B61_nuclear_bomb
[4] https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nuclear-weapons-who-h...
[5] https://www.state.gov/2023-report-to-congress-on-implementat...
Related
As Iran Picks a President, a Nuclear Shift: Open Talk About Building the Bomb
Iran has expanded its nuclear production, hinting at weapon development. The US and Israel are concerned about Iran's growing nuclear capabilities, raising international alarm over the situation's uncertainty and potential risks.
Visualizing All the Nuclear Waste in the World
Nuclear power contributes 10% of global electricity. A collaboration visualizes existing nuclear waste types and disposal needs. High-level waste is less than 0.25% of total radioactive waste. Nuclear industry waste is minimal compared to other sectors.
Not to Worry, Only the President Can Launch Nukes, Pentagon Report Says
A Pentagon report emphasizes the President's exclusive authority to launch nuclear weapons, prompted by concerns during the Jan. 6 riot. The "nuclear football" system ensures only the President can authorize a strike.
A New Specialized Train Is Ready to Haul Nuclear Waste
A specialized Atlas railcar is developed to transport spent nuclear fuel in the U.S. DOE faces moving 140,000+ tonnes of SNF by 2060. Atlas passed tests, costing $33 million, meeting strict transport standards.
Nuclear Is Back
President Biden signed the ADVANCE Act, promoting new nuclear technologies and reducing licensing fees. Despite bipartisan support, some Democratic officials express hesitancy towards nuclear energy, posing challenges for expansion. The Act aims to advance nuclear power development, emphasizing its importance for energy transition.