July 25th, 2024

Big Tech says AI is booming. Wall Street is starting to see a bubble

Big Tech's investment in AI is projected to reach $60 billion annually by 2026, but analysts doubt profitability, predicting only $20 billion in revenue, amid concerns about a potential investment bubble.

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Big Tech says AI is booming. Wall Street is starting to see a bubble

Big Tech companies are heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI), with Wall Street analysts expressing concerns about a potential investment bubble. Analysts are questioning the profitability of AI, despite significant spending, with estimates suggesting that Big Tech could invest around $60 billion annually in AI by 2026 but only generate about $20 billion in revenue. This skepticism contrasts with previous optimistic forecasts about AI's potential to automate jobs and boost economic output. Major firms like Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia have seen their stock prices rise, but analysts warn that the technology is not yet mature enough to justify the massive investments.

While tech executives maintain that AI will transform industries, the current financial returns from AI investments are underwhelming. The venture capital landscape reflects this uncertainty, with a decline in returns from tech start-ups. Some analysts predict that many AI start-ups may not survive the current market conditions, while larger companies can sustain their investments longer. The overall sentiment is that while AI has transformative potential, the expectations surrounding its immediate profitability may be unrealistic. As the industry evolves, costs associated with AI development are expected to decrease, potentially leading to a more sustainable market in the future. However, the current landscape is marked by caution and skepticism regarding the long-term viability of AI investments.

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Link Icon 3 comments
By @downrightmike - 3 months
IF the early gen: Alexa, is massively unprofitable, and VC money is burning to get the Current AI Rush going, I don't see how it is not a bubble. Real people and companies can't afford the real cost. People are just cheaper (tm).
By @1vuio0pswjnm7 - 3 months
""Despite its expensive price tag, the technology is nowhere near where it needs to be in order to be useful," Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs's most senior stock analyst and a 30-year veteran of covering tech companies, said in a recent report about AI. "Overbuilding things the world doesn't have use for, or is not ready for, typically ends badly.""

Who should I believe: (a) Goldman analyst with 30 years experience or (b) HN commenters who consistently dismiss any and all criticism of "AI".

Every criticism or iota of skepticism of "AI", even something as simple as "show me the money", gets countered on HN. It reminds me of the way HN commenters defend "crypto". It is like some sort of religion.

Every day, we have to wade through endless submissions about "AI". Yet an HN poll showed voters thought "AI" was overhyped.

I am going with (a).

Too much focus on "the future" while trying to deflect attention away from the present. Vapourware tactics.