The Unseen Fallout: Chernobyl's Deadly Air Pollution Legacy

A recent paper presented at the NBER Political Economy conference examines the long-term impacts of the Chernobyl disaster on nuclear power plant (NPP) construction and air pollution. The study highlights how the disaster effectively halted NPP construction in the U.S. and other democracies, despite the less severe Three Mile Island incident having minimal impact. The decline in new NPPs led to older plants operating beyond their intended lifespans, increasing the risk of accidents. The authors argue that the reduction in nuclear energy has resulted in higher air pollution levels, as new plants typically reduce ambient particulate matter in surrounding areas. They estimate that the decline in NPPs since Chernobyl has led to a loss of over 318 million expected life years in democratic countries due to increased air pollution. The paper also discusses the regulatory challenges and high costs associated with building new NPPs in the U.S., contrasting this with the more efficient construction timelines in China. The financial burden of Chernobyl remains significant, with ongoing costs in Ukraine and Belarus. Ultimately, the authors conclude that the negative health impacts from increased air pollution due to reduced nuclear power capacity may outweigh the direct consequences of the Chernobyl disaster itself.