Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse
A study estimates a 59% probability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapsing before 2050, with significant societal impacts, urging the need for enhanced monitoring and understanding of climate implications.
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A recent study titled "Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse" by Emma J.V. Smolders and colleagues addresses concerns regarding the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within this century, which could have significant societal impacts globally. The authors provide observationally based estimates of the probability of such a collapse, utilizing reanalysis data rather than solely relying on conceptual models and proxy data. They identify optimal observation regions for predicting an AMOC collapse, highlighting salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic as particularly useful. The study estimates the collapse could occur between 2037 and 2064, with a mean prediction of 2050. Furthermore, the probability of an AMOC collapse occurring before 2050 is estimated at 59% with a margin of error of ±17%. This research emphasizes the urgency of monitoring the AMOC and understanding its potential implications for climate and society.
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10 commentsThe collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59 +/- 17%.
We'll miss you, Gulf Stream.
The Wikipedia page on the AMOC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...) links to a page summarizing some scientists’ reactions:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-...
However, I have no idea if this is representative or not.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Rahmstorf
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHNNW8c_FaA "One of the most ominous risks for Europe is that of a major change in Atlantic ocean currents. Recent science suggests it has been greatly underestimated in the past -including by me, having worked on it for over 30 years. Here Prof. Rahmstorf presents his keynote in Vilnius in May 2024."
Their primary example is the AMOC.
" “All the negative side effects of anthropogenic climate change, they will still continue to go on, like more heat waves, more droughts, more flooding,” he told CNN. “Then if you also have on top of that an AMOC collapse … the climate will become even more distorted.”
...
The impacts of an AMOC collapse would leave parts of the world unrecognizable.
In the decades after a collapse, Arctic ice would start creeping south, and after 100 years, would extend all the way down to the southern coast of England. Europe’s average temperature would plunge, as would North America’s – including parts of the US. The Amazon rainforest would see a complete reversal in its seasons; the current dry season would become the rainy months, and vice versa. "
[0] https://lite.cnn.com/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation...
So apparently the “mean” is different from the 50% point. Would that be the median? And wouldn’t that be the more interesting point?
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