August 7th, 2024

Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan

China's ambition to invade Taiwan faces significant challenges due to logistical hurdles, Taiwan's geography, and the resolve of its population, making a successful military operation difficult and costly.

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Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan

China's ambition to control Taiwan faces significant challenges, making a military invasion difficult and costly. Despite ongoing military modernization, including advanced weaponry and naval capabilities, the complexity of a successful invasion operation is daunting. The Taiwan Strait, over ninety miles wide, presents logistical hurdles, with extreme weather limiting viable invasion windows. China would need to transport hundreds of thousands of troops, requiring thousands of ships, which would be vulnerable to Taiwanese defenses.

Taiwan's geography further complicates an invasion, with few suitable landing sites and mountainous terrain that favors defenders. The island's infrastructure, including limited access routes to major population centers like Taipei, would hinder Chinese forces. Urban warfare would be necessary to conquer Taiwan, leading to a slow and costly conflict. The Taiwanese military's knowledge of the terrain and the population's resolve to resist would likely play a crucial role in any defense.

Recent military exercises by China have raised concerns about potential invasion plans, especially following Taiwan's political changes. However, the inherent defensive advantages and the will of the Taiwanese people suggest that any attempt at invasion would encounter formidable resistance.

- China's military modernization aims to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan.

- The Taiwan Strait poses significant logistical challenges for a seaborne invasion.

- Taiwan's geography and infrastructure favor its defense against an invading force.

- Urban warfare would complicate and prolong any military operation.

- The resolve of the Taiwanese population is a critical factor in potential conflict outcomes.

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By @nkurz - 5 months
The reasons given that an invasion would be difficult for China seem reasonable, but I'm bothered that it seems to assume "unifying" with Taiwan would require a land invasion. Given Taiwan's dependence on imports, it seems more likely that China would blockade the island.

From a quick read, the article never even mentions this possibility. Why wouldn't they at least wave at this possibility? Here's an article from last December that gives what I feel is a better explanation: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-coun...