August 11th, 2024

China's total wind and solar capacity outstrips coal

As of June 2024, China's wind and solar energy capacity has surpassed coal for the first time, with projections indicating solar will become the primary energy source by 2026.

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China's total wind and solar capacity outstrips coal

As of June 2024, China's total wind and solar energy capacity has surpassed its coal capacity for the first time, according to Rystad Energy, referencing data from the Chinese National Energy Administration. The research firm anticipates that by 2026, solar power will become the primary energy source in China, with a projected cumulative capacity of 1.38 terawatts (TW), exceeding coal by 150 gigawatts (GW). In 2023, China added a record 293 GW of wind and solar capacity, primarily due to large-scale renewable hub projects, while coal power additions were significantly lower, with only 40 GW added in 2023 and just 8 GW in the first half of 2024. Following a record 216 GW of solar installations last year, projections indicate that installations will exceed 230 GW in 2024, alongside an expected 75 GW increase in wind capacity. Rystad Energy's senior analyst, Simeng Deng, noted that with robust renewable energy project pipelines, China is poised to reduce its status as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and power consumer, with solar energy playing a crucial role in this transition.

- China's wind and solar capacity has surpassed coal capacity for the first time.

- By 2026, solar power is expected to become China's main energy source.

- In 2023, China added a record 293 GW of wind and solar capacity.

- Coal power additions have significantly decreased, with only 8 GW added in early 2024.

- Strong renewable energy project pipelines are set to transform China's energy landscape.

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AI: What people are saying
The discussion surrounding China's renewable energy capacity highlights several key themes and concerns.
  • China's renewable energy growth is significant, with projections indicating solar will surpass coal by 2026.
  • Many commenters express skepticism about the reliability of solar and wind energy, emphasizing the need for energy storage solutions.
  • There is confusion regarding the meaning of "capacity," with some questioning the difference between nameplate capacity and actual energy production.
  • Concerns are raised about the environmental impact of coal, despite the growth in renewables.
  • Some commenters suggest that investments in renewable energy should also focus on improving existing coal plant emissions.
Link Icon 11 comments
By @teractiveodular - 2 months
Worth highlighting: The research firm projects that by 2026, solar power alone will outstrip coal as China's main energy source, reaching 1.38 TW in cumulative capacity, 150 GW above coal.

Last year, China added a record 293 GW of wind and solar, driven by gigawatt-scale renewable hub projects. Coal power additions were about 40 GW in 2023, while the first half of 2024 saw only 8 GW of new coal capacity, according to Rystad Energy’s estimates.

After a record 216 GW of solar installations last year, China is expected to exceed 230 GW this year. Wind capacity additions are projected to be 75 GW in 2024.

To put those numbers into perspective, the largest nuclear power plant complex in the US (Vogtile) has a capacity of 4.6 GW, while the world's largest power plant at the Three Gorges does 22.5 GW (max).

By @alwa - 2 months
Those quantities are astonishing, no doubt. Does “capacity” here mean “nameplate capacity,” in the sense of the maximum that the installation can produce under peak input conditions? So for solar, the actual energy flowing into the grid would be on the order of 10-20% of that?
By @dn3500 - 2 months
Seems like a less than useful comparison, given the very different utilization factors. For solar you'd need five times the capacity to get the same average power.
By @ggm - 2 months
If this reflects a goal set in the 13th 5 year plan, I am pleased their intent is both stated publicly, and being achieved.

From the plan:

> Key objectives of China are to: Increase share of non-fossil energy in total primary energy consumption to 15% by 2020 and to 20% by 2030. Increase installed renewable power capacity to 680 GW by 2020. Increase installed wind capacity to 210 GW.

https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/node/2837

By @loongloong - 2 months
Humans have managed to build out a global network of fiber to enable a global Internet.

I wonder if we can do the same for electricity distribution, mitigating the uneven electricity generation of solar (day vs night, summer vs winter, etc.)

By @aquamar2 - 2 months
China accounts for close to 60% of global coal-fired electricity generation and coal-fired power emissions

In 2023, China's total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from coal-fired power generation hit 5.56 billion metric tons, an all-time high that was nearly 6% greater than 2022's record. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-may-upend-...

By @whatever1 - 2 months
Max capacity is not equal to actual production volumes.

Also some of that capital would be better invested at cleaning up the outputs of the coal plants. Supposedly there are desulfurization units in 90% of their plants. The actual pollution numbers disagree with that.

By @ApolloFortyNine - 2 months
It's still a good thing, but isn't this misleading, since solar capacity would only be able to run 1/3 of the day-ish? Not sure about wind but again guessing it's not 100%.
By @asdefghyk - 2 months
The problem is wind and solar are un reliable. Need massive storage needed for them to be 24x7. Then there is the 2nd problem problem that transmission line capacity is needed to get it from its stored location ( maybe hydro or batteries ) to where it's needed.
By @xiaodai - 2 months
But cup blah blah blah