Was the Real Jobs Revision Negative 818,000 or Negative 915,000?
The article highlights a discrepancy in job revision numbers reported by the BLS, with a decline of 915,000 jobs suggested, raising concerns about accuracy and potential economic implications.
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The article discusses a discrepancy in job revision numbers reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). While many sources reported a downward revision of 818,000 jobs, the author calculated a more significant decline of 915,000 jobs based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data. The author expressed frustration over the inconsistency and noted that the BLS has not yet updated its summary page to clarify the revisions. The article highlights the implications of these revisions, suggesting that they could affect fiscal policy, market reactions, and economic forecasts. The author also raised questions about the accuracy of the reported numbers and the methods used to derive them, emphasizing the need for transparency in how these figures are calculated. The article concludes with a warning about the potential negative trends in the economy, suggesting that the revisions indicate a recessionary environment.
- The reported job revision numbers differ significantly, with sources citing either -818,000 or -915,000 jobs.
- The author calculated a decline of 915,000 jobs using QCEW data, expressing concern over the accuracy of the BLS figures.
- The discrepancies in job numbers could impact fiscal policy and economic forecasts.
- The article calls for greater transparency in the methods used to report employment data.
- The overall economic outlook appears negative, with potential implications for personal income and savings rates.
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5 commentsRelated
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The tight labor market post-COVID-19 recovery poses challenges despite economic gains. Economist Adam Ozimek stresses nuanced approaches to worker shortages, wages, and long-term economic health, emphasizing lessons from past recessions.
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The economy might be in a hidden recession despite official indicators showing otherwise. Issues like underestimated inflation and stagnant manufacturing orders suggest a potential long-term downturn, urging alternative indicators for accurate assessment.
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Workers are stuck in place because everyone is too afraid of a recession to quit
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