US employment falls by 818,000 in latest government revision
The U.S. labor market saw a downward revision of 818,000 jobs as of March 2024, with significant losses in professional services and leisure sectors, prompting discussions at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
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The U.S. labor market has been revised to show a decrease of 818,000 jobs as of March 2024, indicating a cooling trend that may have begun earlier than previously thought. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual revision revealed significant downward adjustments, particularly in the professional and business services sector, which saw a reduction of 358,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality, which lost 150,000 jobs. Consequently, the average monthly job additions were adjusted down from 242,000 to 174,000. Despite this revision, experts maintain that the growth rate remains healthy. Economists have cautioned against overinterpreting these figures, emphasizing that they reflect past conditions and do not alter broader economic trends such as GDP growth and consumption. Recent labor market indicators, including a weak July jobs report and rising unemployment rates, have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, some analysts argue that while the labor market is softening, it is not in a state of rapid decline. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address these issues at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where labor market conditions will likely be a focal point.
- U.S. employment was revised down by 818,000 jobs as of March 2024.
- The largest job losses were in professional services and leisure & hospitality sectors.
- Monthly job additions were adjusted from 242,000 to 174,000.
- Economists caution against overreacting to the revised figures, noting broader economic trends remain stable.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to discuss labor market conditions at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
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U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier
The U.S. Labor Department revised job growth figures, indicating 818,000 fewer jobs added than reported, with average monthly growth down to 174,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, but layoffs remain low.
Was the Real Jobs Revision Negative 818,000 or Negative 915,000?
The article highlights a discrepancy in job revision numbers reported by the BLS, with a decline of 915,000 jobs suggested, raising concerns about accuracy and potential economic implications.
6 commentsThe first estimate is “based on a monthly survey of about 560,000 worksites” [1]. While this is fast, “many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data.”
The second estimate, this one, incorporates “state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file” [2].
These data keep getting updated as survey figures come in, all the way to tax filings the following year. Because the easiest response—to a survey or for filings—is “no change,” the employers making the most changes, whether hiring or firing, respond and file the latest. That makes the figures lagging. When the economy is booming, the numbers are revised up. When it’s falling, down.
Those who can read the data know this is natural, given the methodology. Those who cannot see conspiracy in a cover-up (when numbers are revised down) or the deep state not giving their team credit (when up).
[1] https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numb...
[2] https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchm...
It increases innovation, increases jobs, increases labor movement, and decreases inflation.
I'm of the opinion that a great deal of the last round of inflation was companies realizing their cartel power to set high prices because meaningful competition is so rare.
We like will be onshoring or near shoring more production in the coming decades and large cartel powers are less likely to do so because of sunk costs.
... It won't happen though.
News from 2 days ago, discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41311519
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CNN Business analysis reveals US economy weakness: high unemployment, slowed consumer demand, declining service sector activity. Factors include inflation, interest rates, and debt burden. Hiring slowdown in services industry raises concerns about economic stability.
The number of available jobs in the US is shrinking
The US job market is slowing, with job openings at 8.18 million and hiring rates at a decade low. Workers prioritize job security, while layoffs remain low, indicating cautious employer behavior.
Fear of US recession rattles global markets as tech shares fall
Global stock markets fell sharply due to fears of a US recession after disappointing job data. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 3%, while Japanese equities faced their worst decline since 2020.
U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier
The U.S. Labor Department revised job growth figures, indicating 818,000 fewer jobs added than reported, with average monthly growth down to 174,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, but layoffs remain low.
Was the Real Jobs Revision Negative 818,000 or Negative 915,000?
The article highlights a discrepancy in job revision numbers reported by the BLS, with a decline of 915,000 jobs suggested, raising concerns about accuracy and potential economic implications.