August 25th, 2024

NASA's Starliner decision was the right one, but it's a crushing blow for Boeing

NASA has halted Boeing's Starliner crewed flight due to safety issues, raising doubts about future missions. Boeing faces significant delays, technical problems, and has incurred $1.6 billion in charges.

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NASA's Starliner decision was the right one, but it's a crushing blow for Boeing

NASA's recent decision to not allow Boeing's Starliner spacecraft to conduct its first Crew Flight Test with astronauts marks a significant setback for Boeing, which has invested heavily in the program. Initially awarded a $4.2 billion contract to develop Starliner, Boeing has faced multiple technical issues, including thruster failures and helium leaks, leading to concerns about the spacecraft's safety. As a result, NASA opted to return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to Earth aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon instead. This decision raises doubts about Boeing's ability to complete all six planned Starliner missions before the International Space Station (ISS) retires in 2030. Currently, NASA has only committed to three operational flights with Boeing, and the timeline for future missions is uncertain, with the next potential crewed flight not expected until at least 2026. Boeing has already incurred $1.6 billion in charges due to delays and will need to address the identified propulsion system issues. The contrasting assessments of safety between NASA and Boeing highlight ongoing challenges in the program, as both organizations must navigate the complexities of ensuring crew safety while managing technical failures.

- NASA decided against using Boeing's Starliner for its first crewed flight due to safety concerns.

- Boeing has faced significant technical issues, including thruster failures and helium leaks.

- The timeline for future Starliner missions is uncertain, with potential delays until 2026.

- NASA has only committed to three operational flights with Boeing, raising doubts about completing all planned missions.

- Boeing has incurred $1.6 billion in charges related to delays and cost overruns in the Starliner program.

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By @rich_sasha - 6 months
I suppose it's precisely the existence of Boeing that keeps SpaceX "cheap" (I guess they are also good at what they do). I would imagine the minute SpaceX has no competition, it will lose all incentive to be cheap or good.

Equally, perhaps Boeing knows that oddly they have utility as a runner up, and are unmotivated to do better.

Interesting game theoretic problem.

By @jmyeet - 6 months
More context: Airbus has beaten Boeing in orders and deliveries for 5 straight years [1]. Boeing does have a protected market because of the 737 type rating for airlines like Southwest but as we saw with the 737MAX, that comes at a cost.

This is deeply embarrassing for Boeing. Their internal woes have bubbled to the surface and have started to affect planning, budgeting and delivery. This was for something designed to carry humans too. How much will Boeing have to do to repair their reputation and restore confidence in Starliner specifically but also their commercial spaceflight divisions in general?

Compare this to SpaceX where the Falcon 9's recent incident broke a streak of over 400 successful launches. Falcon 9 is now the most successful and reliable launch platform and its also one of the cheapest.

The Falcon 9 is really the Boeing 747 of space at this point.

SpaceX has its own issues with delivering on time. Crew Dragon was late. Starship is behind schedule and (IIRC) over cost. But these issues just pale into comparison to Boeing's issues.

[1]: https://archive.is/nzjKQ

By @sithadmin - 6 months
Is it really a “crushing blow”? Bowing’s continued success in the commercial aviation sector despite the MCAS issue seems to suggest that they are more or less untouchable. They’re too big to fail, and probably also too big to succeed.
By @mglz - 6 months
Has there been any change in Boeing management (which is what led to the mess they are in)?
By @fifteen1506 - 6 months
It's almost as if the management is so wealthy that it can retire now with no downsides and thus has no interest in building portfolio for their next job/company.
By @mechhacker - 6 months
Boeing management seems to be the real crushing blow for Boeing.
By @mikewarot - 6 months
The Last Supper in 1993[4,5], is the likely root cause of all of this, in my opinion. It lead to the "feeding frenzy", a series of mergers.

Its my understanding that the actual "crushing blow" for Boeing was the merger with McDonnell-Douglas[1] in 1997, and the profit über alles management style[2] that they were infected with as a result.[3]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_capitalism

[3] https://indi.ca/the-boeing-737-max-and-the-crash-of-capitali...

[4] https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2023/03/01/the-last-supper-how-...

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Supper_(Defense_industry)