Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality

A recent report by Swiss Re Institute indicates that the lingering effects of COVID-19 may result in the longest period of peacetime excess mortality in the United States and the United Kingdom. The report forecasts that excess mortality could reach 3% in the U.S. and 2.5% in the U.K. by 2033 if the impact of the virus is not mitigated. The primary causes of this excess mortality are respiratory diseases, including COVID-19, and cardiovascular conditions exacerbated by the pandemic's disruption of healthcare services. The report highlights that in 2023, excess mortality rates remained significantly elevated, with estimates ranging from 3-7% in the U.S. and 5-8% in the U.K. Swiss Re emphasizes the importance of controlling COVID-19, particularly among vulnerable populations, to reduce excess mortality. Optimistic scenarios suggest that with advancements in healthcare and lifestyle changes, excess mortality could return to pre-pandemic levels as early as 2028. The implications for insurers are significant, as they may need to reassess mortality risk in their portfolios and adapt their strategies accordingly.

- Swiss Re predicts excess mortality could reach 3% in the U.S. and 2.5% in the U.K. by 2033.

- Respiratory diseases and cardiovascular conditions are the main drivers of excess mortality.

- Excess mortality rates in 2023 remain significantly elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.

- Controlling COVID-19 and improving healthcare access are crucial for reducing excess mortality.

- Insurers may need to adjust their risk assessments and strategies in response to ongoing excess mortality trends.