"Bogey of Technological Unemployment"
Concerns about AI replacing jobs reflect historical anxieties about technological unemployment. While AI may transform roles, it is expected to create new opportunities, necessitating adaptation to balance job creation and displacement.
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Concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) replacing jobs echo historical anxieties about technological unemployment, notably during the Great Depression. In 1938, MIT President Karl T. Compton argued that while technological advancements could displace certain jobs, they ultimately create new industries and opportunities, suggesting that technological unemployment is a myth when viewed from an industry-wide perspective. This perspective remains relevant today as AI technologies advance, prompting fears of a jobless future. Compton acknowledged the immediate hardships faced by displaced workers, emphasizing the need for economic understanding rather than alarmist views. Similar sentiments were echoed in the 1960s and early 2010s, where automation and AI were again linked to job losses. Despite predictions of mass unemployment, evidence suggests that while many jobs may be affected, most will not be entirely replaced but rather transformed. Reports indicate that a significant portion of jobs are only partially exposed to automation, implying that AI could augment rather than eliminate roles. The challenge lies in balancing the job creation potential of AI with its capacity to displace workers. Historical data shows that innovation has consistently led to new job types, but the current pace of automation raises concerns about whether job creation can keep up with job displacement.
- Historical fears of technological unemployment have recurred over decades.
- Technological advancements often create new industries and job opportunities.
- Current AI technologies are likely to transform jobs rather than eliminate them entirely.
- Many jobs are only partially exposed to automation, suggesting a need for adaptation rather than outright replacement.
- Balancing job creation and displacement remains a critical challenge in the age of AI.
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3 commentsThis argument ignores the fact that technological advances are not created equal, nor is the context in which they operate equal. It _may_ be that the future plays out the same way as the past, but circumstances are completely different so there's also a significant chance that it doesn't.
In previous such events it was possible to imagine what new industries/jobs could come about that would require human labor (i.e., farms -> factories). But with AI (which has been around for a long time but I mean the most recent advances using LLMs/etc), I have yet to hear any articulation of concrete concepts of new professions/industries _requiring large amounts of human labor_ that would be created by it (the number of new high-expertise jobs needed to create/expand/deploy such systems is small).
Secondly, and more importantly, corporations and investors, in almost every industry, are singularly focused on _eliminating as much human labor as possible_ since humans are, in most cases, the most expensive (and troublesome) component of their operation. With so much of our collective intellect and brain power focused on "solving" this "problem", it's inevitable that progress will continue to be made in that direction. And we are finally inventing tools that make it possible to eventually automate large numbers of professions across a wide spectrum, that previously were impossible to replace (we're not just talking typesetters being displaced by Linotype machines).
On the flip side, how many research $$ and corporate (or billionaire) $$ are being spent on creating new industries or professions that will soak up the human labor made obsolete by AI? I'd venture to say the number is close to zero, because it's not a profitable route. We're hardly giving it any thought other than a few "radicals" suggesting some form of UBI.
For that reason I see this technological revolution much differently than past ones, and I don't expect past events to predict future ones in this regard.
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