US Election prediction markets diverge from poll-based models

US election betting markets are experiencing significant activity, particularly on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have seen billions in trades. These markets allow bettors to trade shares based on specific outcomes, such as the winner of the presidential election, with shares priced between $0 and $1. Recently, the odds for a Trump presidency have risen sharply, diverging from traditional polling data. A group of anonymous traders, referred to as "FrediGroup," has been identified as major players in this market, holding substantial shares that suggest a strong belief in a Trump victory. Speculation surrounds whether this group is manipulating market perceptions or trading on insider information regarding Kamala Harris's campaign. The group's trading behavior raises questions about the integrity of the market, as their actions could influence public perception and media narratives about Trump's chances. Despite the potential for manipulation, the actual trading dynamics and the public nature of transactions make it challenging for the group to execute a successful "pump-and-dump" scheme. The situation highlights the complexities of political betting markets, where the motivations of traders can significantly impact market behavior and public opinion.

- Political betting markets are seeing increased activity, particularly for the US presidential election.

- A group of anonymous traders, "FrediGroup," holds significant shares suggesting a belief in a Trump victory.

- Speculation exists about potential market manipulation or insider trading by this group.

- The divergence between betting odds and polling data raises questions about market integrity.

- The public nature of trades complicates the execution of manipulative strategies.