October 30th, 2024

Don't Bet Against the Dollar

The author expresses a bullish outlook on the US dollar, citing strong economic indicators and a projected 3.4% GDP growth for 2024, reinforcing confidence in the dollar's resilience.

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Don't Bet Against the Dollar

The article discusses the author's bullish outlook on the US dollar, emphasizing that the strong and dynamic nature of the American economy will sustain global demand for the currency. The author notes that despite concerns about the dollar's potential weakening, recent economic indicators suggest a positive trajectory. Specifically, the US economy is expected to experience a "soft landing," with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta projecting a GDP growth rate of 3.4% for 2024. This optimistic forecast reflects a better-than-expected economic performance in 2023, reinforcing the author's belief that the dollar will remain strong in the near future.

- The author is increasingly bullish on the US dollar due to strong economic indicators.

- A projected GDP growth rate of 3.4% for 2024 supports the positive outlook.

- Concerns about the dollar's weakening are countered by the US economy's resilience.

- The expectation of a "soft landing" for the US economy enhances confidence in the dollar's strength.

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By @josefritzishere - 6 months
There are many bald assertions in the article and it comes clearly in response to the growing prominence of BRICS. So to me it reads as somewhat fearful. I don't think trading in BRICS is inherently "betting against the dollar" but it's abundantly clear that dollar hegemony is over. We are well on our way to a world of multi-currency trading. If BRICS nations do establish a new reserve currency that will change a lot. It's even been suggested that "the unit" may be a gold-backed currency. That I might see as a bet against the dollar.
By @from-nibly - 6 months
I don't have any real basis for this but my "gluten free potato chips" sixth sense is tingling. Are people actually betting against USD in a large sense in favor of another government currency (I'm sure there is constant short term trading, also long term gold bets)

It's also tripping my "if you have to say it, it isn't true" alarm.

I just read somewhere that banks are currently holding a real estate bag that's 7 times more underwater than 2008. I really doubt we're heading for anything other than an even bigger inflation event than what we've already seen.

In which case, maybe USD vs any other currency is dumb (in large part because most global currencies are backed by USD in one way or another). It might be time to think about holding non currency assets though.

By @game_the0ry - 6 months
Holding aside inflation, commodities, or any hedges for inflation, its worth noting that the dollar is the "least dirty shirt in the hamper."

In hard times, consider what other alternative currencies there would be to the USD.

That being said - stagflation is dead ahead.