Why the next leaps towards AGI may be "born secret"
The USCC recommends a Manhattan Project-like initiative to accelerate Artificial General Intelligence development, ensuring U.S. leadership in AI, addressing espionage concerns, and potentially applying a "born secret" doctrine to research.
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The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) has recommended that Congress establish a Manhattan Project-like initiative to accelerate the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This recommendation is part of the USCC's 2024 Annual Report, which emphasizes the need for the U.S. to maintain leadership in AI capabilities. The report suggests providing extensive funding and contracting authority to key AI and data center companies, as well as prioritizing AGI-related projects within the national defense framework. The urgency of this initiative is underscored by predictions that AGI could be achieved by 2027, with the potential for rapid advancements leading to superintelligence shortly thereafter. The report also highlights concerns about the security of AI advancements, suggesting that the current landscape may not adequately protect against espionage. The concept of a "born secret" doctrine, which classifies certain scientific knowledge from its inception, is also discussed, indicating that future developments in AGI may be shrouded in secrecy similar to the atomic bomb project. This initiative reflects a growing recognition of the strategic importance of AGI in both economic and military contexts.
- The USCC recommends a Manhattan Project-like program for AGI development.
- The initiative aims to ensure U.S. leadership in AI capabilities.
- Predictions suggest AGI could be achieved by 2027, with superintelligence following soon after.
- Concerns about espionage highlight the need for secure development of AI technologies.
- The "born secret" doctrine may apply to future AGI advancements, indicating potential secrecy in research.
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6 commentsTheir number one recommendation was that Congress establish a "Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) capability".
There's a lot to say about this, which I cover in the piece.
I don’t care who is researching this, we won’t have AGI by 2027 and super intelligence by 2030s.
> Based on trends in AI capabilities research since GPT-2, we are on course to expect AGI by 2027. Once AGI capability is available, if labs focus on automating AI research itself, progress in AI should accelerate. If similar progress can be achieved as the phase from GPT-2 to GPT-4, or GPT-4 to AGI, we should expect Superintelligence before the end of the decade.
Whereas with AGI loads of companies are already on it and there isn't really reason to believe that a government entity would get there faster.
The Kamala "broadband" project did cost $42 billion to taxpayers and not one home has been connected with this new program. In nearly four years. Zero. Meanwhile StarLink is actually connecting people.
Be it NVidia, OpenAI, Meta, Google, etc. all the models are coming from private companies. The government metastasized and seems to be unable to do anything besides create more pointless public servants.
They could spent 1 trillion on this (what's 1 trillion when you spent $42 billion to not connect a single home to broadband? and what's a trillion when you're already 36 trillion in debt), I still don't think the US goverment could beat private companies. Too much bureaucracy. Too many people with the sole goal of making the government ever bigger.
Now on a positive note (I guess), I'll grant everybody that it's even less likely that AGI would from the EU bureaucracy.
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