Danger in Plain Sight: The Risk of Triggering a Contingent Election (2023)

In 2024, the risk of triggering a contingent election due to potential third-party success poses a threat of constitutional crisis. The 12th Amendment could come into play if no candidate secures a majority in the Electoral College, leading to Congress selecting the president and vice president. The lack of federal laws governing this process raises concerns about chaos and crisis, with unsettled legal and procedural questions. The potential outcomes range from destabilizing to calamitous, with high-stakes legal disputes and constitutional challenges likely. The risks include faithless electors, court challenges, narrow margins in the House of Representatives, and manipulation of voting rules. The House majority's control becomes crucial, as it could impact the selection process significantly. Additionally, the possibility of a presidential candidate's death without a method for replacement and a Senate filibuster leading to a vice presidential vacancy add further complexity to the situation. The absence of clear regulations for a contingent election heightens the potential for abuse, delay, and crisis, mirroring the challenges faced during the aftermath of the 2020 election.