I don't buy 538's new election model

Nate Silver criticizes 538's new election model for not giving enough weight to polls and producing questionable results. He expresses concerns about the model's methodology, particularly its heavy reliance on "fundamentals" over polling data. Silver highlights discrepancies in the model's forecasts, especially in states like Wisconsin and Ohio. He questions the model's logic and transparency, pointing out the wide error margins in its fundamental estimates. Silver emphasizes the complexity and potential flaws in statistical models, cautioning against overreliance on untested models. He argues that the 538 model's current thesis, favoring Biden as an incumbent without strong polling influence, may not accurately reflect the election dynamics. Silver also challenges the model's timeline for incorporating polling data and its assumptions about polling movement, suggesting that the model's uncertainty levels are high due to modern polling trends.