August 15th, 2024

Nate Silver's guide to "The River"

Nate Silver's book "On the Edge" examines "The River," a community of poker players, crypto enthusiasts, and tech entrepreneurs, highlighting their values, cognitive traits, and ongoing tensions with the Democratic-aligned "Village."

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Nate Silver's guide to "The River"

Nate Silver's new book, "On the Edge," explores the dynamics of a community he terms "The River," which encompasses poker players, crypto enthusiasts, and tech entrepreneurs. Silver, who transitioned from professional poker to political analysis, describes Riverians as individuals who value data, free speech, and capitalism, often finding themselves in a political struggle against the Democratic-aligned "Village" elites. He notes that while many Riverians are not wealthy, the affluent among them are more likely to belong to this group. Despite recent challenges, including scandals in poker and crypto, Silver argues that The River continues to thrive, with significant wealth accumulation in Silicon Valley and Wall Street. He outlines the cognitive traits of Riverians, such as analytical and abstract thinking, and the ability to decouple ideas from their contexts. This community is characterized by a competitive spirit and a contrarian mindset, often leading to clashes with the Village, which is more aligned with traditional political structures and left-leaning ideologies. Silver aims to provide insight into this ecosystem, highlighting both its strengths and flaws, while emphasizing the growing tension between The River and The Village as they vie for influence and power.

- Nate Silver's "The River" includes poker players, crypto investors, and tech entrepreneurs.

- Riverians value data-driven decision-making and often clash with the politically aligned "Village."

- Despite recent scandals, The River continues to thrive economically.

- Key cognitive traits of Riverians include analytical thinking and a contrarian mindset.

- The tension between The River and The Village reflects broader societal power struggles.

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By @mjamesaustin - 6 months
Gotta love him defining "River" people as loving competition and risk-taking when by and large their empires are built from capturing a market and then preventing competitors from entering it, preventing customers from leaving it, and then extracting as much money as possible from it.

The part I see as accurate is the idea that "River" people just want to win. And for that to happen, they have to perpetuate a world with winners and losers, a system that just makes it easier for those on top to keep taking whatever they want.

By @harimau777 - 6 months
I can't speak to Nate's record as an analyst or whether the categories that he's setting up would stand up to academic review. However, the overall dynamics he's discussing line up well with my experiences. In particular his description of negative reactions to the type of reasoning he calls "decoupling" has been a major source of frustration for me when interacting with fellow progressives.

I'm seeing a lot of commenters disliking this article overall and/or the author. Are there any alternative articles/books/resources you would recommend that discuss the reasoning styles aspect of author's argument?

By @slyall - 6 months
A better article:

Bruce Springsteen’s “The River” Spoke to My Working-Class Dublin

https://lithub.com/bruce-springsteens-the-river-spoke-to-my-...

By @jonathanyc - 6 months
"The River" is just a weird rebranding of the same gray tribe/rationalist (Slate Star Codex) high-rung vs. low-rung/golem (Tim Urban of "Wait But Why") stuff. The late David Graeber put it better than I can:

> Normally, they will—like the robber barons of the turn of the last century—insist that they are acting in the name of efficiency, or “rationality.” But in fact this language always turns out to be intentionally vague, even nonsensical. The term “rationality” is an excellent case in point here. A “rational” person is someone who is able to make basic logical connections and assess reality in a non-delusional fashion. In other words, someone who isn’t crazy. Anyone who claims to base their politics on rationality—and this is true on the left as well as on the right—is claiming that anyone who disagrees with them might as well be insane, which is about as arrogant a position as one could possibly take.

When you zoom into almost any controversial political opinion, you will find that peoples' arguments are valid but not sound. That is to say that their arguments logically follow from their assumptions, but that you don't share their assumptions.

If someone has different assumptions from you, sometimes you're not stupid and they're not stupid. You just have different assumptions. But it certainly feels better to assume that they just messed up their argumentation and are being irrational.

By @WheatMillington - 6 months
Nate Silver is so utterly intolerable. The guy got lucky once, and is now framed as an expert, and has the commensurate smugness that makes it completely impossible for me to listen to him for more than a couple of minutes at a time.
By @turnsout - 6 months
So basically Nate Silver is coming out as a Libertarian? Why the coded language?
By @advael - 6 months
Having a bit of a bad PR year? Come up with a New Kind Of Guy that you are and do some good old fashioned identity politics. Throw some archetypes at the wall and see what sticks. Make people think you're letting them in on some secret club that unites some of the people they've read about in the news. Keep it just vague enough that it's hard to definitively test whether someone fits or not. Barnum was right
By @mvdtnz - 6 months
Love that I have to keep hearing from a guy who got lucky once.