Life expectancy rise in rich countries slows down: took 30 years to prove
A study reveals that life expectancy improvements in wealthy countries are slowing, with children born since 2010 having a low chance of reaching 100, particularly in the U.S. due to chronic diseases.
Read original articleA recent study indicates that the rise in life expectancy in wealthy countries is slowing down, challenging previous optimistic forecasts. Researchers analyzed mortality data from ten regions over three decades, concluding that while people are still living longer, the rate of improvement has decreased significantly since 2010. The study, co-authored by epidemiologist S. Jay Olshansky, suggests that there are biological limits to human lifespan, with children born since 2010 having less than a 5% chance of living to 100. The analysis, which excluded the COVID-19 pandemic's impact, revealed that life expectancy improvements fell below two years per decade in most populations, except for Hong Kong and South Korea. The United States experienced a notable decline in average life expectancy, attributed to rising deaths from chronic conditions among middle-aged individuals. While some experts agree with Olshansky's findings, others remain hopeful that advancements in medical science could still lead to breakthroughs in extending lifespan. The study emphasizes the need for further research into age-related diseases to improve longevity.
- Life expectancy improvements in wealthy countries are slowing down.
- Children born since 2010 have a low chance of living to 100.
- The United States has seen a decline in average life expectancy due to chronic diseases.
- Some researchers believe medical advancements may still extend lifespan limits.
- The study analyzed mortality data from 1990 to 2019, excluding COVID-19 effects.
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- Concerns about the U.S. healthcare system's inefficiencies compared to other countries, particularly Australia.
- Discussion on the impact of lifestyle choices, such as obesity and diet, on life expectancy.
- Questions about the accuracy and sources of life expectancy data, with a desire for updated statistics.
- Debate over the feasibility of significantly extending human lifespan and the implications of aging.
- Recognition of socioeconomic factors affecting health outcomes and life expectancy disparities among different population groups.
Curiously, however, for a system apparently stultified by the dead hand of government, Australia’s health system far outperforms the free market-based US healthcare system, which spends nearly twice as much per capita as Australia to deliver far worse outcomes — including Americans dying five years younger than us.
The shocking truth: Australia has a world-leading health system — because of governmentsSource: https://www.crikey.com.au/2024/10/16/pubic-private-healthcar...
Bypass: https://clearthis.page/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.crikey.com.au%2F...
Overall, we now have the fourth-highest life expectancy in the world.
This is contrary to the narrative that pervades the media about our health system — one in which our “frontline” health workers heroically battle to overcome government neglect and inadequate spending, while the population is beset by various “epidemics” — obesity, alcohol, illicit drugs.
In fact, Australian longevity is so remarkable that in August The Economist published a piece simply titled “Why do Australians live so long?”
Other references:The Economist: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/08/23/why-do-a...
AU Gov Report: Advances in measuring healthcare productivity https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/measuring-healthcar...
The gist is that this isn't quite as cut and dry as it may seem.
We also paid to make the Nature Aging paper open access.
75% American are overweight..
Just let it sink a second, they speak about how many baby born after 2000 will reach 100 years old, how we are reaching the absolute limit of human survival.
75% overweight... Everyone know fat people don't live long. I bet all the studies done in the 90's that predicted we would easily be able to reach 100 years old didn't take that into account.
I'm not noticing people eating more healthily, so it only makes sense that life expectancy isn't going up anymore.
[1]: https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death [2]: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cardiovascu...
People are asking if we should be surprised by the headline but are missing this. As suggested in the article by the researchers, there is something dragging down the average since the 2010s. Not even hitting the general expectation of ~75 years. We don’t have solid answers yet, only theories.
So yes, generally while going up against the process of aging is going to create barriers (eg can we get to 130 years old), we are also failing to raise the baseline which is the bigger issue that people might not grasp when it comes to “life expectancy rates”.
Our world in data hasn't updated life expectancy past 2021.
I've half wondered if it's because the article is optimistic but life expectancy has stalled since 2020. Coild also be the underlying data hit a snag. Would love to see an update
I do not understand how some of the conclusions about reaching the limitations of reducing aging or reached given this simple data. not to mention a direct quote that is very inspirational in the article itself
"if we cannot imagine it today, does not mean it is not possible"
That is to say, I'm not clear that "beating aging" is what is required for "long life." Is that definitionally required and I'm just being dense?
I'm assuming this is a tiered discussion? In that nobody thinks we should freeze aging at baby stages for someone. Such that we would still want some aging, but would then try and fix a point where all aging can be stopped?
Overall, the study found that children born since 2010 have a relatively small chance of living to 100 (5.1% chance for women and 1.8% chance for men). The most likely cohort to see a full century are women in Hong Kong, with a 12.8% chance.
How do you quantify the chance of a teenager living to 100?It is expensive to live a healthy lifestyle in the US.
Get an apartment on at least the third floor, in a building without a lift.
Get a pet dog which needs to be walked several times a day.
Eat lots of chili peppers[0]:
"The analysis included data from more than a half a million people in multiple countries. When compared with people who never or rarely ate chili pepper, those who ate it regularly had lower rates of death due to cardiovascular disease (by 26%), cancer (by 23%), or any cause (by 25%)."
[0] https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/will-eating-more-chilis-....
A little bit of high-intensity workout each week?
I know people who are incapable of eating lunch or any meal without a large can/bottle of full-strengh coca cola or such, ever single day. Most of whom complain about not being able to lose weight.
The science is pretty clear. Breaking out of old habits is much more challenging.
EDIT: Typos: whole -> whom, mean -> meal
To show that we are hitting a limit on our ability to extend lifetime, we really should look at having reached 95, how many people reach 105 or something like that.
To say that the average life expectancy is dropping and therefore we have reached our limit on their ability to extend the lifetimes ignores the fact that much of the reason for a stage life expectancy drop in my country is lifelong maltreatment, often self-inflicted--death-oriented decisions on drugs, nutrition, and activity.
Related
Americans dying younger than their English-speaking peers worldwide
A study in BMJ Open shows Americans have the lowest life expectancy among high-income English-speaking countries, with preventable deaths and geographic disparities contributing to this issue, highlighting the need for public health reforms.
Rural Americans are dying younger, living less healthy lives, report reveals
A study from the University of Southern California indicates rural Americans have shorter lifespans and poorer health than urban residents, primarily due to chronic diseases, smoking, and obesity.
Implausibility of life extension in humans in the twenty-first century
A study in Nature Aging indicates that life expectancy improvements have slowed since 1990, with low chances of reaching age 100, and radical life extension unlikely without major advancements in aging research.
Most of today's children are unlikely to live to 100, analysis says
A study by Jay Olshansky indicates that only 5.1% of girls and 1.8% of boys born in 2019 will reach 100, emphasizing the need to enhance health span over lifespan.
Why everything you think about living to 100 might be wrong
Recent studies indicate genetics significantly influence extreme longevity, overshadowing lifestyle choices. While healthy living may extend life, it doesn't ensure reaching 100. Data on centenarians is often unreliable, and promising interventions lack human trial evidence.