Implausibility of life extension in humans in the twenty-first century

The analysis published in Nature Aging examines the plausibility of radical life extension in humans during the twenty-first century. It highlights that while life expectancy in high-income nations increased significantly throughout the twentieth century, improvements have slowed since 1990. The study analyzed demographic data from countries with the longest life expectancies, including Australia, Japan, and the United States, revealing that the rate of increase in life expectancy has decelerated, with mortality compression occurring and lifespan inequality declining. The findings suggest that the likelihood of individuals reaching age 100 is low, with only about 15% of females and 5% of males expected to achieve this milestone. The authors argue that unless biological aging processes can be significantly slowed, radical life extension is unlikely to occur in this century. The research also indicates that the required reductions in mortality rates to achieve even modest increases in life expectancy have become more substantial over time, further complicating the prospects for significant life extension.

- Life expectancy improvements have decelerated since 1990 in high-income nations.

- Only a small percentage of newborns are expected to live to age 100.

- Radical life extension is deemed implausible without significant advancements in slowing biological aging.

- The required reductions in mortality rates for increasing life expectancy have increased over time.

- Lifespan inequality has declined, while mortality compression has been observed in long-lived populations.