Did too many games release in Q3 of 2024?
In Q3 2024, 13,065 games were released, nearing 2023's total. Estimated releases for 2024 could reach 18,000, but many games struggle with low review counts and late success.
Read original articleIn Q3 of 2024, the gaming industry saw a significant number of releases, with 13,065 games launched by October 1, just shy of the total for all of 2023. The author tracked games that achieved over 1,000 reviews, indicating a strong audience interest. As of the sampling date, 348 games met this criterion, with 267 being indie titles. The trend suggests a potential increase in total releases for 2024, estimated at nearly 18,000, marking a 28.92% rise from the previous year. However, a concerning statistic emerged: almost 50% of released games garnered fewer than 10 reviews, and 80% received under 50, indicating that many games struggle to gain traction. The article also discusses the phenomenon of "late bloomers," games that achieve success after their initial release period, highlighting that only a few games manage to recover from poor early sales. The author dismisses the notion that AI-generated games are flooding the market, asserting that AI art is not yet capable of meeting the demands of game design. Overall, while the volume of games is increasing, the relative success rates appear consistent with previous years.
- Q3 2024 saw 13,065 game releases, nearing 2023's total.
- 348 games achieved over 1,000 reviews, with 267 being indie titles.
- Estimated total game releases for 2024 could reach 18,000, a 28.92% increase.
- Nearly 50% of games released in 2024 received fewer than 10 reviews.
- "Late bloomers" are rare, with few games recovering from poor initial sales.
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It's exactly the same as farmers planting too much. It doesn't matter if people love what they planted. There is a limit to what people can reasonably consume.
Only, unlike farming, I don't expect governments to intervene in the market. Video games aren't exactly a critical good.
Its a tough call for studios, as training some talent is impossible due to zero workmanship ethics from prior trauma in production environment art. And No, most don't give a fsck about AI due to the copyright liability it injects. lol =3
Entertaining people is _very_ challenging work.
John Carmack [2]: "The work in the aerospace industry is "simple" compared to the work he does in video games"
[1] https://lostgarden.com/2016/11/17/autumn-of-indie-game-marke...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Carmack#Armadillo_Aerospa...
I'm speculating, but the writing on the wall was there since the mid-2010s. A much needed reckoning during #MeToo opened the flood gates. It broke a clearly abusive, yet stable equilibrium. The subsequent instability saw a panicked pivot into faux-inclusive corporatization & an exodus of the talented few who made these miraculous games happen. Artistic endeavors can only sustain so many MBAs.
Look at the top studios. Ubisoft & EA have yet to take risks on a single 'inspired' original IP since 2020. Both tried to pivot to mobile, only to realize that East-Asia & gambling studios had that market cornered. Blizzard & Bethesda crumbled below a pile of scandals. Post acquisition by Microsoft, neither have produced a single decent game. Sony's existing IPs are doing doing ok; eg: GOW, Remakes, Souls-like games. But, they haven't produced fresh IP or face planted with (non)releases like Concord.
We are in an interesting Liminal space for gaming. Hyped games like GTA 6 & Elder Scrolls 6 are too far away. No recent AAA game has taken over. And the choke-hold of long running games is waning(Dota, LOL, Fortnite, CS, Pokemon Go). I see a 2 year margin for a new game to take over the scene. Black Myth showed how wide-open the arena is right now. If 2077 had managed their release well, they'd have won out....but alas. For mid-sized indie game developers (eg: Supergiant Games), this is their shot at triggering this decades Fortnite/LOL moment........Or, it'll be a roblox game. It's going to be a roblox game isn't it ?
__________
P.S: I'm confused why costs for AAA games have ballooned. Machines, engines & tooling have improved many fold. At the same time, consumer expectations haven't changed since Crysis released 15 years ago. It should be a lot cheaper to make polished games. That's ignoring all the benefits of gen AI too.
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Physical console games are declining as digital downloads dominate the market. New physical releases decreased while digital titles increased significantly. Major publishers still prioritize physical releases, but smaller companies are shifting to digital distribution due to lower costs. The trend is evident across PlayStation, Xbox, and Switch consoles, with a rise in digital releases. The data suggests a shift towards digital gaming, making physical console games a niche market.
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A Video Game Flopped Harder Than Anything at the Box Office This Year, Unnoticed
Sony's multiplayer shooter Concord, released in August 2024, lost around $399 million, sold 25,000 copies, and was taken offline after two weeks, with mainstream media largely ignoring its failure.