November 20th, 2024

AI's Slowdown Is Everyone Else's Opportunity

A slowdown in AI development allows businesses to reassess strategies and focus on return on investment, as leading developers report diminishing returns in model performance and challenges to continuous improvement.

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AI's Slowdown Is Everyone Else's Opportunity

A recent slowdown in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) tools is providing businesses with an opportunity to reassess their strategies and focus on achieving a return on investment. The rapid growth of AI, which was previously driven by the expectation that generative models would continuously improve with more data and computing power, is now facing challenges. Reports indicate that leading AI developers are experiencing diminishing returns in model performance, suggesting that the exponential improvements seen in the past may not continue. This shift allows companies to take a step back, evaluate their AI investments, and strategize on how to effectively leverage AI technologies moving forward.

- The slowdown in AI development offers businesses a chance to reassess their strategies.

- Companies can focus on achieving a return on investment in AI technologies.

- Diminishing returns in AI model performance are being reported by leading developers.

- The expectation of continuous improvement in AI capabilities is being challenged.

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By @jondwillis - 5 months
I think the slowdown being breathlessly reported right now is yet to be substantiated. AI has had a lot of winters, and model size scaling might be leveling off in terms of capability, but there could be another breakthrough or optimization right around the corner. That being said, my head is spinning from the last two years and I could also use some breathing room.
By @daft_pink - 5 months
The fact that Claude is automatically pushing me to an inferior concise mode and seems to be focused on saving processsor cycles due to high demand seems to indicate that AI isn’t slowing down at all, it’s use is accelerating and data center investment is going to accelerate.

It’s just a random data point, but it makes me less skeptical of Nvidia’s current earnings sustainability the way that not being able to get your hand on an iPhone for a few months used to indicate Apple’s profit sustainability and current weakness.

By @terabytest - 5 months
By @codingwagie - 5 months
Slowdown? Sonnet 3.5 came out in June, and was a step change in programming capability. Zoom out 5 years and we are moving at lightning pace. This is like saying bitcoin isnt ripping because it went down for six months. Non linear progress doesn't monotonically increase
By @YetAnotherNick - 5 months
> The multi-trillion-dollar artificial intelligence boom was built on certainty that generative models would keep getting exponentially better. Spoiler alert: they aren’t.

The only two sources this post provides are another Bloomberg articles. And the sources to those are "according to three people with knowledge of the matter".