Kenya and "The Decline of the Greatest Coffee" (2021)

Growing up in Nairobi, it took only a 20-minute ride to visit the vast coffee farms in areas like Kiambu, Limuru, and others nearby areas. These farms were located less than 10 kilometers from the city center, many of them close to the edge of the Aberdare mountain ranges. In the mid-1990s, when I was in primary school, we were taught that Kenya was a leader in coffee and tea production, and I used to consume coffee almost daily. Then, all of a sudden, it seemed like one scandal after another emerged—farmers were not being paid, and the industry became overrun by brokers and middlemen. This meant local farmers were cut off from selling their coffee at competitive market rates and instead had to deal with corrupt government officials and brokers. So, what did the farmers do? Most abandoned coffee farming and converted their farms into prime real estate. Remember, these farms were near the mountain slopes, making the land highly valuable. These new houses became popular with the UN and foreign nationals from Europe and the US, who sought refuge from Nairobi’s “heat.” As a result, more coffee farms were converted into real estate, and today these areas feature some of the most expensive properties in Kenya. For instance, $200,000 would now be considered cheap for a three-bedroom apartment.

This was such a fascinating read—it really resonated with me. A few years ago, my girlfriend and I started a small coffee shop in Hanoi as a fun side project, and I was struck by the parallels between Vietnam's coffee history and the issues you outline here about Kenya.

Vietnam, like Kenya, emerged from a coffee industry shaped by colonial-era inequities. Yet through reforms, robust state support for smallholder farmers, and a focus on infrastructure, Vietnam has positioned itself as a global coffee powerhouse. While the initial focus on robusta was quantity-driven, there’s now a shift toward quality, which is helping Vietnamese coffee expand into new markets.

Kenya’s situation feels similar yet distinct. It has an unparalleled coffee heritage, and with thoughtful reforms—empowering smallholders, encouraging direct trade, and finding the right balance between quality and disease-resistant hybrids—it could reclaim its standing on the global stage.

The article beautifully captures the systemic challenges and the hope for transformation. I really believe Kenya’s coffee can rise again, stronger and fairer, just as Vietnam is starting to do. It’s inspiring to see how coffee connects people and places across the world in such unique ways!

Tim Wendelboe (perhaps the greatest coffee roaster) has been talking about this on his latest Q&A podcast. A rigmarole for exports plus climate change are causing issues.

He does a two-episode deep dive into the Kenyan coffee market here, which is worth a listen: https://timwendelboe.no/2024/03/inside-kenyas-coffee-market-...

This was tough to read.

I was never a coffee drinker at all until I spent a month in Kenya 6 years ago helping a startup get off the ground (ex CTO/CEO lived in Nairobi at the time). I tried the local coffee as was customary (when in Rome...) and because the Kenyans were SO passionate about their local coffee.

I was floored. I got completely hooked, and to this day have not found quality Kenyan coffee here in the USA. The coffee in Kenya is incredible, puts the crap Americans pay $$$ for at Starbucks to absolute shame.

This guy is making Kenya out to be difficult/unequitable, but I'm not aware of any country whose coffee production is equitable. Farmers get paid peanuts and struggle from year to year, and international trade is a boon for the buyer and an existential crisis for the seller (well, for the producer, but the poor seller sometimes misses a BMW payment)

I wonder what the long term solutions to these kinds of problems are in East Africa and similar contexts.

The remnants of colonialism continue to produce winners and losers economically, with the winners stuck in local maxima where they extract value from the people, but the people themselves see only marginal benefit, and development is stuck at a snail's pace.

As with seemingly everything in life, the incentives for the different players really don't line up. Consumers lose, producers lose, and only a select few middlemen win anything at all.

Sounds like they need a futures market. This allows producers to sell their crop to traders earlier so they don’t have to wait for final export. In addition more law and order to protect those markets from the mills that are skimming.

This was an awesome read.

I never knew what my coffee went through.

The Ugandan coffee was really good.

By the end of 2024 Kenya is still best "safe" option to buy beans from unknown roastery. In my opinion of course.

It's 99% corruption and stupidity. The system is pretty convoluted, with multiple layers of middlemen taking a cut before the coffee reaches the international market. The auction system with multiple middlemen and commissions complicates the supply chain, reduces transparency, and delays payments to farmers, discouraging investments in quality. Marketing agents paying allowances to cooperative board members to secure business is a form of corruption that undermines fair trade practices and leads to quality neglect. Despite buyers paying premiums for quality, improvements in processing facilities aren't being made. So, even if farmers are trying to produce high-quality coffee, the facilities might not be up to par to handle it properly. The absence of direct relationships between buyers and farmers makes it difficult to hold anybody accountable for quality. The discontinuation of traditional processing methods like double washing, likely due to reduced volumes, may be contributing to quality decline. High financing costs and delayed payments make it challenging for farmers to maintain high-quality standards. The lack of reforms in the coffee export system perpetuates the current problematic structure. It's 99% corruption and stupidity.