You Can Ignore Allan Lichtman and His Presidential Predictions

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University, is known for his model, "The 13 Keys to the White House," which predicts U.S. presidential election outcomes based on fundamental criteria rather than polling data. His model has gained attention for accurately predicting the winners of every presidential election since 1984, including Donald Trump's unexpected victory in 2016. However, the model's simplicity is criticized for being overly subjective, as many of the keys rely on interpretations of terms like "charismatic" or "major scandal." Critics argue that Lichtman often adjusts his definitions and predictions post-election to maintain his track record, which raises questions about the model's reliability. For instance, he has retroactively claimed that his model predicts the popular vote, despite initially stating it predicts the electoral outcome. This flexibility allows him to adapt his predictions based on election results, undermining the model's credibility. While the keys correlate with election outcomes, the assertion of infallibility is deemed misleading. Lichtman's recent media appearances have focused on advising Democrats on election strategies, but critics suggest that relying on his model may not be the best approach. Ultimately, skepticism about Lichtman's motivations and the accuracy of his predictions is warranted, as he appears to prioritize maintaining a perfect record over intellectual honesty.