Book Review: On the Edge, Nate Silver
Nate Silver's book "On the Edge" contrasts risk mindsets, discusses his 2016 election forecast, explores gambling analytics, and emphasizes expected value in decision-making, blending personal stories with influential profiles.
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Nate Silver's new book, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything," explores the dichotomy between two mindsets regarding risk: the "Riverians," who embrace probabilistic thinking and risk-taking, and "The Village," which is more risk-averse and skeptical of markets. Silver's 2016 election forecast, which gave Donald Trump a 29% chance of winning, is a focal point, illustrating how interpretations of risk can vary widely. While many criticized Silver for his prediction, he argues that it was a valuable insight that encouraged betting on Trump, contrasting with other models that underestimated his chances. The book is structured into two halves: the first delves into gambling, highlighting the analytical revolution in poker and sports betting, while the second examines the broader implications of risk in fields like technology and philanthropy. Silver's engaging writing style makes complex concepts accessible, and he emphasizes the importance of expected value (EV) in decision-making. The narrative is enriched with personal anecdotes and profiles of influential figures in gambling and tech, making it both informative and relatable. Ultimately, Silver advocates for a mindset that embraces risk and uncertainty as essential to progress and innovation.
- Nate Silver's "On the Edge" contrasts two risk mindsets: Riverians and The Village.
- The book discusses Silver's controversial 2016 election forecast and its implications for risk assessment.
- It covers the evolution of gambling analytics and its influence on decision-making in various fields.
- Silver emphasizes the importance of expected value in evaluating risks and rewards.
- The narrative combines personal stories with profiles of key figures in gambling and technology.
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2 commentsIt's also a lot easier to be a Riverian you're doing it with other people's money, as is the case on Wall Street. Or if you can lower your personal `p(doom)` by escaping to a private luxury bunker.
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